Trump risks a wider Iran war by treating diplomacy as theater
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
By balancing threats of renewed strikes with quiet sanctions waivers, Donald Trump is attempting a high-stakes gamble that mistakes military posture for genuine diplomatic leverage.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio claims President Donald Trump wants to end the war with Iran "peacefully." This is a diplomatic fiction. President Donald Trump told the Right Side Broadcasting Network he will "just end it" if a deal is not made. That is not diplomacy. He is describing an ultimatum. By blending the threat of renewed strikes with a vague openness to talks, the administration is not seeking peace. It is performing a dangerous act of brinkmanship that mistakes the appearance of strength for actual leverage.
The machinery of a forced deal
The administration is running a play it has seen before. This is the Maximum Pressure campaign reborn. It uses the same mechanism: intensified sanctions to force a target state into a more restrictive security agreement.
The capabilities are already in place. CNN reports thousands of US troops are being dispatched to the region. CNBC reports the U.S. and Iran are preparing for additional military strikes following the Nov. 3 midterm elections. CNBC also reports the UK allowed US forces to use RAF Fairford and Diego Garcia for "defensive" strikes. These are not the movements of a government seeking a "time out," as Ambassador Tom Barrack suggested to CNN. They are the preparations for a kinetic event.
The opposing case is that this "carrot-and-stick" approach is the only way to force Tehran to cap its nuclear program. Its advocates argue that Iran only negotiates when it fears for its survival. But this logic fails when the target has already suffered a decapitation strike. The war began in February when US and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. When you have already killed the head of state, further threats do not create leverage. They create a cornered animal.
This mirrors the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The 2015 agreement sought to limit nuclear capabilities through sanctions relief. Now, the administration is trying to bypass trust entirely through coercion.
The hidden levers and the Israeli factor
While Rubio speaks of peace, the paperwork tells a different story. President Trump signed Executive Order 14436 to implement the Graham Act while immediately waiving its major sanctions and duties. This is the real "carrot." The administration is carving out tactical flexibility. It is keeping commercial channels open while brandishing the sword.
However, Washington does not hold the only sword. Benjamin Netanyahu lobbied Trump to launch the February strikes with the goal of regime change. Netanyahu remains in office despite losing his majority. His political survival depends on a hard-line posture. He is a partner whose domestic needs may override American interests.
Tehran is not blind to this. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered an "immediate, impactful, and geographically unrestricted response" to any threat. A senior security official told CNN that Iran will target AI and other infrastructure. This is not a bluff. It is a doctrine of asymmetrical survival.
We saw this pattern during the assassination of Qasem Soleimani. A high-stakes strike targeted a senior Iranian leader. The difference now is the scale. This is not one general; it is a state in the eighth month of a conflict.
The cost of miscalculation
The administration believes it can manufacture a crisis to force a surrender. But in the Middle East, most escalation is a miscalculation. The professionals in the room likely warned that the "carrot-and-stick" approach has no effect on Iran. Parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told mediators this is the case. They were overruled by a preference for theater.
Five years from now, this strategy will be viewed as a failure of credibility. If the US strikes again, it cements a permanent state of war. Settling for a fragile "timeout" based on temporary waivers signals that American threats are merely precursors to concessions.
The administration is betting that Iran will blink first. But Mojtaba Khamenei has already ordered his military database updated to bring all US assets within reach. When both sides prepare for strikes, the gap between a "diplomatic solution" and catastrophe is a single nervous radar operator.
The White House will likely announce a limited timeout after the midterms. It will use the waivers in Executive Order 14436 as bait. This is not a peace treaty; it is a temporary ceasefire in a war without a clear exit strategy. By treating Gulf security as a campaign slogan, the administration spends the currency that matters most in foreign capitals. That currency is the belief that the United States knows what it is doing.