Mojtaba Khamenei warns U.S. and Israel as Gulf war drags on

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 31, 2026

As Mojtaba Khamenei orders an unrestricted response to potential strikes, Washington and Tehran remain trapped in high-stakes brinkmanship that risks triggering a second, more destructive round of war.

Interests first, capabilities second, statements last in the Persian Gulf Nations have interests, not friendships. The interests in the Persian Gulf remain as starkly opposed as they were when Operation Epic Fury began on February 28. The Trump administration wants an end to the conflict on its own terms. It uses a naval blockade and economic coercion to force Tehran to the table. According to an Associated Press analysis, more than 115 drone or missile strikes claimed by Iran or Iranian-backed militias have damaged or destroyed structures on 26 military bases and other sites with U.S. equipment. Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait was struck at least 30 times. Camp Buehring in Kuwait had its gym destroyed in March and a store hit in late July.

Meanwhile, CBS News reports that CENTCOM chief Adm. Brad Cooper stated that Iran's navy has been destroyed. Cooper added that U.S. forces have cleared primary transit routes of sea mines. He noted this helped Gulf partners export more than 1.5 billion barrels of crude oil since the summer. This echoes the 2020 United States-Iran conflict, where a cycle of high-stakes brinkmanship involved targeted strikes and threats of maximum pressure to force diplomatic concessions. The U.S. Department of Defense has added two more service member deaths to its official account, bringing the overall death toll to 23 since the war started.

The capabilities of asymmetric deterrence and regional anxiety The strong opposing case argues that military deterrence has been restored. It points to Adm. Cooper’s assessment that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was nowhere to be seen in the Strait of Hormuz because their navy is at the bottom of the sea. This view holds that overwhelming force, combined with a strict naval blockade and diplomatic outreach via Qatari mediators carrying a letter from Vice President JD Vance, can compel Iran to accept terms. But this case mistakes temporary suppression for permanent defeat. Iran has systematically restructured its posture. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei met top military commanders, including armed forces chief of staff Ali Abdollahi, army chief Amir Hatami, and Revolutionary Guards commander Ahmad Vahidi. Khamenei ordered an immediate and geographically unrestricted response to any renewed attack.

Fox News notes that a supertanker carrying more than 2 million barrels of oil caught fire after hitting a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz, the fourth such explosion in a single day. Regional actors recognize the peril. At a security forum in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia's vice minister of foreign affairs, Waleed ElKhereiji, stated that people want to bring peace back to the region. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty warned that a second round of war would be more dangerous, more destructive, and lead to nowhere.

The historical pattern of high-stakes brinkmanship The historical pattern predicts that when a regional power is cornered by an economic blockade yet retains asymmetric capabilities, it does not surrender; it broadens the conflict. This mechanism is identical to the one seen during the Assassination of Qasem Soleimani, where the use of high-value targeted strikes failed to alter the regime's decision-making calculus and instead triggered a protracted struggle to establish a new deterrence threshold. For this time to differ, one would have to believe that Mojtaba Khamenei—elevated to supreme leader after his father was killed—would abandon the defensive doctrine of his predecessors.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that while the U.S. effort to open dialogue through Vice President Vance's message is a positive step, Iran sees no need to meet at present. Araghchi stated that Iran's conditions are clear and mediators continue their consultations. Meanwhile, President Trump stated that the war is going to end soon, without specifying how. Secretary of State Marco Rubio opened G20 talks in Atlanta by noting that the world faces interconnected economic and geopolitical crises. ExxonMobil reported that its third-quarter profits more than doubled to $15.4 billion. Credibility is spent in crises and earned in the boring years, and the current theater of threats risks squandering what little stability remains.

Washington and Tehran are sleepwalking toward a second, more destructive round of hostilities because neither capital is willing to pay the domestic political cost of a genuine compromise. The Trump administration's reliance on blockades, countered by Mojtaba Khamenei's directives for an unrestricted response, guarantees that the Strait of Hormuz will remain a flashpoint rather than a secure commercial corridor. Until American policymakers recognize that naval supremacy does not equal political submission, the region will lurch from one crisis to the next, paying for a war that neither side knows how to win nor how to end.

Mojtaba Khamenei warns U.S. and Israel as Gulf war drags on

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