Benjamin Netanyahu's deadlock is a gamble with Israeli stability

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 30, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu's failure to secure a majority has left Israel in a legislative deadlock, a move that prioritizes his personal survival over national stability.

Benjamin Netanyahu is not managing a government. He is managing his own legal calendar. By clinging to a fractured right-wing bloc that cannot govern, he has traded the stability of the state for a personal reprieve. The arithmetic is simple and brutal. Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats. Gadi Eisenkot’s opposition won 48 seats. Arab-led parties hold 19 seats. None of these groups can lead alone.

The arithmetic of survival

The interest of any prime minister is usually the survival of the state. For Netanyahu, the interest is the survival of the man. If he loses office, he faces years of corruption allegations. He also faces a potential inquiry into the security failures of October 7, 2023. His only capability is to stall.

A 61-seat majority is required to form a government. Netanyahu is eight seats short. He cannot turn to the opposition because Gadi Eisenkot and Yair Golan have declared they will not sit with him. He cannot turn to the Arab parties.

The Knesset is deeply fractured. This fragmentation recalls the 2009 Israeli legislative election. In that era, complex negotiations with small parties were the only way to survive. Today, the silos are deeper.

The theater of the void

Netanyahu has opted for the rhetoric of fraud. According to NBC News, Likud has alleged that Arab-led parties stole the election with foreign assistance and requested a Shin Bet investigation.

The facts remain dry. The Shin Bet investigation found the interference claims to be unfounded.

This is a tactic, not a legal strategy. By casting doubt on the results, Netanyahu primes his base for a repeat election. He is betting that Arab turnout will drop next time. This paralysis mirrors the 2019-2022 Israeli political crisis. That crisis proved that ideological silos can paralyze a state for years.

The vetoes of the right

The opposition is equally trapped. Gadi Eisenkot leads the Yashar party. He wants Netanyahu gone. But his path to 61 seats requires the 19 seats held by Arab parties.

This is where the post-October 7 environment bites. Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman have hardened their positions, opposing any government that depends on the two Arab parties.

The 2021 Israeli legislative election shares the same mechanism as this crisis: a cycle of repeated elections driven by a deadlock between polarized blocs where the only path to a majority requires the inclusion of Arab parties. In 2021, that path worked for a year. Now, the right-wing veto is absolute.

President Isaac Herzog must now act as the arbiter. This role echoes the 2022 Italian general election. He will task a leader with forming a government. That leader has 28 days to succeed. If they fail, the cycle repeats.

The cost of the stalemate

Israel cannot afford a power vacuum.

If no government forms, another election will occur next spring. That would be the seventh general election in eight years. This is not a democratic exercise. It is a systemic failure.

Al Jazeera reports that the Joint List may support a minority government from the outside. They want commitments on equality and home demolitions. But this requires a centrist bloc with the courage to lead. Currently, that courage is absent.

Netanyahu has mistaken the caretaker's office for a fortress. He believes he can outlast the clock. He is betting that the country's exhaustion will eventually force the opposition to accept him.

Netanyahu will successfully stall coalition formation while leveraging the Shin Bet investigation into unfounded fraud claims to suppress Arab voter legitimacy. He will use his role as caretaker prime minister to prime his base for a repeat election in the spring. He knows that as long as the Knesset is deadlocked, he remains the man in the room. He is not seeking a coalition; he is seeking a delay. The cost of this gamble is a state that cannot move, led by a man who only wants to stand still.

Sources

1. CNN: Israel election results: How to break the deadlock
2. NBC News: Difficult negotiations lie ahead in Israel after Netanyahu’s bloc lost its parliamentary majority
3. France 24: Israel elections: Difficult negotiations lie ahead after Netanyahu's bloc lost majority
4. Al Jazeera: How can Israel break its election deadlock?