Republicans risk the Senate by gambling on Ken Paxton in Texas

By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington · October 28, 2026

With control of the Senate hanging on a few toss-up races, the GOP's decision to run flawed candidates in red states creates a path for a Democratic takeover.

The Republican party is wrong to assume their current 53-47 majority provides a safe harbor. By nominating candidates like Ken Paxton in Texas, they have traded institutional stability for base enthusiasm. This is a failure of arithmetic. They have mispriced the risk in a way that could hand the Senate to the Democrats.

The math of the margin

The path to control is narrow. As NBC News reports, Democrats require a net gain of four seats to take control. Republicans can lose up to three seats and maintain their majority. They would rely on the tiebreaking vote of Vice President JD Vance.

There are 35 Senate seats up for election. Republicans control 22 of them. Democrats control 13. The historical pattern predicts that midterms punish the party in power. For this to differ, voters would have to ignore the economy.

That is unlikely. Al Jazeera reports that 73 percent of US adults say the cost of living is going in the wrong direction. President Donald Trump's approval rating is 32 percent.

The Texas gamble

Texas is the center of the GOP's magical thinking. ABC News rates the race as a tossup. Republican Ken Paxton is running against Democrat James Talarico.

The GOP will argue that base mobilization is the only way to win. They will point to Donald Trump's four visits to Texas in seven weeks as proof. They believe the "woke" narrative will hold the line.

This is a fantasy. Paxton is a liability. He was impeached in 2023 for bribery, corruption, and abuse of office. He also reached a pretrial agreement in 2015 over securities fraud charges. He paid $300,000 in restitution.

Talarico is a 37-year-old progressive and former state representative. The race is the most expensive Senate race in history. Outside groups contributed over $250 million to elect Paxton. AdImpact reports over $500 million spent on ads in Texas.

Spending cannot fix a broken candidate.

The battleground blur

The risk extends beyond Texas. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is in a close race against Republican Mike Rogers. Trump called El-Sayed a "vicious, violent jihadist." El-Sayed told ABC News these attacks distract from voters who "can't afford our gas and our groceries."

In Ohio, former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Senator John Husted. Axios reports more than $400m has been spent or reserved for ads there. Brown lost his 2024 bid by four points. He still outperformed Kamala Harris in that state.

Alaska is another tossup. Incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. Trump won Alaska by 13 points in 2024. Yet, he directed the Justice Department on Oct. 23 to preemptively sue to block certification.

This is institutional chaos.

The institutional outcome

The United States Senate elections, 1954 shared this mechanism. A small net gain of seats determines the shift in Senate control. This is based on the narrow margin of the majority. We are seeing that same mechanism now.

If the results are a 50-50 split, the Senate will use a power-sharing agreement. This means evenly divided committee membership. Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania already hinted at this. He said, “Let’s revisit after the midterm and see what happens if I happen to be 51.”

This is the boring, institutional reality. It is far from the landslide the GOP hopes for. It is also far from the clean sweep Democrats want. It is a grind for a few seats.

The GOP's strategy of nominating "base" candidates over "competent" ones is a failure of arithmetic. The result will be a fragile Senate. We should expect delayed ranked-choice tabulations in Alaska to lead to prolonged litigation.

Record spending in Texas will likely produce an unexpectedly narrow margin. If the chamber splits 50-50, individual members like Fetterman will hold veto power. The GOP gambled on the brand over the candidate, and they will likely lose the Senate.

Sources

1. The Washington Post: The seven races that will decide control of the Senate
2. NBC News: Senate What If: How the fight for Senate control could play out
3. Al Jazeera: US midterms: Six days left – who leads in the polls as Trump, Obama rally
4. ABC News: These key Senate races will determine which party controls the body next year