Netanyahu's apocalyptic warnings cannot save his coalition

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 25, 2026

Benjamin Netanyahu is using fear of Iran to cling to power as voters drift toward Gadi Eisenkot, a gamble that risks further paralyzing the Israeli state.

Benjamin Netanyahu is attempting to trade on a currency of fear that has already been debased. As Israel prepares for elections on October 27, 2026, the Prime Minister is not campaigning on a record of stability or a vision for peace. Instead, he is using the specter of a "second Holocaust" to bind a fracturing base. This is the act of a man who knows his grip on power is slipping and has decided that panic is his only remaining tool. By framing a democratic vote as an existential risk, Netanyahu is not protecting the state; he is holding its psychological health hostage.

The arithmetic of a fading mandate

The interests of the Israeli voter have shifted from ideological purity to basic competence. According to Al Jazeera, recent polling projects the opposition bloc will win 52 seats. Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist alliance is projected to win 50.

The shift is happening within the Likud party. Rappler reports that 13% of Israeli voters remain undecided.

The October 7 attacks serve as the primary catalyst here. That catastrophic security failure is now shifting voter loyalty among the traditional right-wing base toward centrist alternatives. Gadi Eisenkot is the beneficiary of this drift. He is a former military chief of staff. He is also a child of Moroccan immigrants. His son was killed in combat in Gaza. Eisenkot represents a version of the right that values professional duty over political theater.

The failure of the fear trade

Netanyahu’s response to these numbers is a descent into the apocalyptic. Middle East Eye and Infobae report that the Prime Minister shared an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion on X. He warned that losing power would condemn Israeli families to the risk of a "second Holocaust" due to Iran. He claims he is the only leader who can "pick up the phone" and have a substantial conversation with Donald Trump.

The most capable advocate for the Prime Minister would argue that Iran's nuclear program is an existential threat that dwarfs domestic squabbles. They would claim only Benjamin Netanyahu possesses the personal rapport with Donald Trump to "finish the job" in Iran. This is a seductive argument for the frightened, but it is logically hollow. A leader who must threaten his own people with a Holocaust to secure their vote has already surrendered his authority. He is no longer selling security; he is selling panic.

Netanyahu describes issues like mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox as a "smoke screen." In reality, these are the frictions of a society that can no longer sustain his coalition.

The fragility of the alternative

The opposition’s capabilities are as brittle as the Prime Minister’s. The Yashar party, the Democrats, the Yisrael Beytenu party, and the Together alliance have signed a non-aggression pact. But with only 52 projected seats, they cannot reach 61 alone. They need the Palestinian-led parties, which are projected to win approximately 13 seats.

The opposition's pact recalls the Bennett-Lapid government (2021). That coalition relied on Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas. Today, the Joint List says it will provide a "safety net" in exchange for a path to Palestinian statehood. This is a steep price for a centrist bloc to pay.

If the opposition cannot bridge the gap between its nationalist wing and the Arab parties, the country will simply spin in place.

The most likely outcome is a deadlocked Knesset where neither bloc secures 61 seats. This will force Israel into prolonged maneuvering or another repeat election. Benjamin Netanyahu will likely intensify his apocalyptic rhetoric to coerce reluctant right-wing factions into a disciplined coalition. Meanwhile, any minority government led by Gadi Eisenkot will face immediate instability due to its reliance on fragile external safety nets. The result will be a state that remains paralyzed by the same arithmetic that has haunted it for years.

Netanyahu's apocalyptic warnings cannot save his coalition

The arithmetic of a fading mandate

The failure of the fear trade

The fragility of the alternative

Sources