Flávio Bolsonaro risks Brazil's peace in a desperate runoff
By Aoife Gallagher · Reporting from Dublin ·
As Flávio Bolsonaro fights to seize the presidency in Sunday's runoff, his family's reliance on foreign leverage and past coup attempts makes his campaign a direct threat to Brazilian democracy.
Flávio Bolsonaro is not running a campaign; he is leading a hostage negotiation with the Brazilian state. The 1.1 million people who flooded Copacabana beach on Saturday are not just cheering for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. They are terrified of a movement that views the ballot box as a mere suggestion. Bolsonarismo is wrong because it treats democratic loss as a crime to be overturned by force.
The cost of a foreign master
Brazilians will vote on Sunday, according to The Guardian. The runoff pits the incumbent Lula against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. In the first round, Flávio led with 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%. This narrow gap has emboldened a right wing that does not believe in sovereignty.
The leverage here is not domestic. It is held in Washington. US President Donald Trump has already deployed economic weapons against Brazil. He signed Executive Order 14323, which declared a national emergency and imposed a 40 percent ad valorem tariff on certain Brazilian products. Trump did this to pressure the courts over the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro.
Some voters, like cosmetics entrepreneur Marcos Antonio, see this as a virtue. They want to be aligned with the US. Others, like business owner Ebert Dorigo, argue that welfare policies have blinded people to the value of hard work. This is the strongest case for the right: a vision of a lean, pro-market state aligned with the global north.
But this "alignment" is actually a surrender. When a big capital uses tariffs to dictate judicial outcomes, the smaller nation ceases to be sovereign. The 2018 Brazilian general election brought this family into the mainstream, and they have spent every moment since trading Brazilian autonomy for the favor of a foreign strongman.
The lie of the strongman
Flávio Bolsonaro promises an iron fist. He has pledged to create 500,000 more spots in prisons, as reported by Free Malaysia Today. He leans on the legacy of his father, Jair Bolsonaro. But that legacy is one of ruins. Jair is currently serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.
The 2022 Brazilian general election mirrored this current struggle for the state. It proved that the Bolsonaro family does not accept the rules of the game. This is the same mechanism seen in the January 8th attacks in Brazil. There, a mob invaded government buildings to violently overthrow Lula. The direct causal link is clear: Bolsonarismo refuses to accept democratic losses and turns to state violence to maintain power.
The people see the cost of this "strength." Restaurateur Marta Moraes told The Guardian she lost four family members to the neglect of the previous administration. Architect Erika Cavalcante warned that voting for the "mobsters" would lead to a dictatorship. The 2013 Brazilian protests showed the same grassroots energy now fueling Lula's rallies. People are not fighting for a man; they are fighting for the infrastructure of peace.
A history of broken rules
The record is a cold teacher. Since the return of democracy in the 1980s, no first-round loser has won the presidency. Lula is fighting an uphill climb, but he has a machine the Senator cannot match. "Lula's Army" is a WhatsApp group with 10 million members.
The struggle is not about "the worst" versus "the lesser evil." It is about whether the law applies to the powerful. Flávio Bolsonaro asks why things are expensive. Lula answers that his rival does not know what hunger is. ClickOnDetroit | WDIV Local 4 notes that the race is a nail-biter. But the stakes are not a simple change in policy.
If the Bolsonaro family returns to power, they will not do so to govern. They will do so to settle scores. They will use the presidency to dismantle the courts that imprisoned their patriarch. They will turn the state into a shield for the "rotten" part of politics that Isabella Gaze, a retired teacher, describes as the true enemy of the people.
Washington will immediately leverage Executive Order 14323 to extract trade concessions and demand the suspension of judicial inquiries into the Bolsonaro family. By using economic pain in export sectors, Donald Trump will dictate terms from the big capital. Brazil will not be a partner to the US; it will be a subsidiary. The only way to stop this is to ensure the ballot box remains the final word.