Netanyahu trades Hebron's stability for short-term election gains
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a West Bank operation days before the election, sacrificing long-term stability in Hebron to rally his right-wing base for short-term survival.
Benjamin Netanyahu is trading the stability of the West Bank for a few seats in the Knesset. By launching a massive military operation in Hebron days before the October 27 election, the Prime Minister has abandoned the role of a statesman for that of a campaigner. This is not a security necessity. It is a political calculation. Netanyahu is attempting to manufacture a crisis to frighten his base back into the polling stations. In doing so, he is burning the very credibility he claims to defend.
The arithmetic of survival
The interests here are not national security, but personal survival. A poll by public broadcaster KAN suggests the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot will garner two more seats than Netanyahu's bloc. In a parliament of 120 members, two seats are the difference between a premiership and a legacy of failure. Netanyahu knows his security-first reputation was damaged by the October 7, 2023 attack. He is now attempting to restore it through theater.
The mechanism is a well-worn script. This is the 2015 Israeli legislative election all over again. In that race, Netanyahu used a last-minute video to warn that Arab voters were moving in droves to the polls. He used identity politics and security fears to galvanize the right-wing base and turn a tight race into a victory. This time, he is not using a video. He is using the Israel Defense Forces.
The strategy targets a specific demographic. RFI English reports that first-time voters identify as right-wing or centre-right. These voters prioritize security. By sealing Hebron and flattening streets, Netanyahu signals to these voters and his coalition partners that he is the only man capable of destroying the enemy.
The cost of the clampdown
The capabilities deployed in Hebron are designed for visibility, not precision. CBC News reports the military operated in more than 400 locations over the weekend. The result was the displacement of more than 2,200 people. Hebron municipal officials stated families were displaced from nearly 500 apartments.
The strongest case for this operation is simple: it is a necessary response to the October 23 attack that killed two Israeli soldiers. An ablest advocate would argue that the IDF must dismantle the infrastructure of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to prevent further deaths. They would point to the weapons found in the gunmen's car as proof of an imminent threat to civilians.
That argument fails because the response is disproportionate to the objective. The IDF did not just target a cell. It cordoned off a whole city. BBC reports that at least one whole street in Hebron has been flattened. When the military bans Palestinian workers from entering settlements and closes all land crossings on election day, it is not conducting a counter-terrorism raid. It is practicing collective punishment.
This is a pattern. The 2014 Gaza War saw a large-scale offensive launched during domestic political tension to consolidate right-wing support. Like then, the current operation uses a localized tragedy to justify a broad campaign. The cost of this move will be paid in five years. By displacing thousands and destroying homes, Israel is not eradicating militants. It is recruiting them. The conditions in Deir Bahha are a textbook guide for insurgent mobilization.
The theater of strength
The statements coming from the government are not cables; they are campaign ads. Netanyahu warned of attempts by enemies to harm citizens ahead of the election. He promised to destroy the gunmen's home.
The goal is to project firmness. The reality is a desperate attempt to appease far-right coalition partners who want the Palestinian Authority dismantled.
The Palestinian Authority is already fragile. By undermining its administrative control in Hebron, Netanyahu is accelerating its collapse. SBS News notes that the PA has called for international pressure to protect residents. The PA cannot protect its people when the IDF is flattening their neighborhoods. When the state that is supposed to coordinate security instead destroys the local infrastructure, the PA ceases to be a partner. It becomes a ghost.
The Israeli public is not entirely fooled. Families of victims organized thousands of protesters on Saturday. They are demanding accountability, not more rubble. Yet, Netanyahu bets that the fear of Gadi Eisenkot's centrism will outweigh the desire for answers.
Netanyahu is playing a high-stakes game of chicken with the West Bank. He believes he can ignite a fire to warm his voters, then put it out once the ballots are counted. But fires in the West Bank do not go out on command. They spread.
The security clampdown in Hebron will likely consolidate enough right-wing turnout to deny the opposition a governing majority, preserving a fragmented Knesset. However, this short-term political win will trigger a long-term strategic disaster. The expanded campaign in Judea and Samaria will push the Palestinian Authority toward total administrative collapse. Simultaneously, the permanent displacement and infrastructure destruction in Deir Bahha will harden local militant recruitment. Netanyahu may save his office on Tuesday, but he is ensuring that the next three years will be defined by an insurgency that he himself helped build.
Sources
- CBC News: Israeli military conducts massive West Bank operation, days before Israel election
- BBC: Israel to close West Bank crossings on election day as crackdown escalates
- RTÉ: West Bank attack may boost Netanyahu's election chances
- SBS News: Israel to close key access point on election day
- RFI English: Young Israeli voters lean right, as election puts Netanyahu to the test