Ken Paxton ties the Texas Senate race but remains a liability

By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington · October 22, 2026

Ken Paxton and James Talarico are tied in the polls, but Paxton's legal scandals make him an institutional liability for a state that needs a functioning government.

Texas is currently staring at a statistical dead heat. A recent Fox News Poll shows Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among likely voters. But a tie in the polls is not a tie in viability. Ken Paxton is a liability to the institution of the U.S. Senate. He is a man whose career is a ledger of legal crises and ethical collapses. James Talarico is the only workable answer for a state that needs a functional representative, not a permanent defendant.

The arithmetic of a ceiling

The raw numbers reveal a candidate who has hit a hard ceiling. Paxton's favorability is a disaster. He is 41% favorable and 58% unfavorable. In a statewide race, a 17-point gap in favorability is a canyon.

The only reason Paxton remains in the race is the blind loyalty of a partisan base. However, the "double haters" are the only group where Paxton holds a commanding lead. He leads among voters who view both candidates negatively. This is not a mandate of strength. It is a vote of desperation from people who have no one else to turn to.

The economic reality in Texas is also shifting. 43% of voters say they are worse off financially than two years ago. Only 20% say they are better off. Those who feel the pinch favor Talarico by 45 points. This is the kind of pocketbook pain that breaks partisan lines.

The institutional break

The race is a study in the Impeachment of Ken Paxton. This parallel reveals the core tension of the contest. It is the fight between a candidate's legal scandals and the loyalty of a partisan base. Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 for abuse of power and corruption. While the Texas Senate acquitted him, the institutional condemnation was clear.

The "old guard" of the Texas GOP is finally breaking. Neil Bush, son of George H.W. Bush, has crossed party lines to endorse Talarico. He stated that "character counts more than party affiliation." He is deeply concerned by Paxton's efforts to challenge the 2020 presidential election results. Barbara Bush also signaled this break. She donated $2,500 to the Lone Star Rising PAC, which supports Talarico.

This is not just a few disgruntled elites. Non-MAGA Republicans support Talarico. This is a significant hemorrhage for a party that usually treats statewide races as a foregone conclusion. It mirrors the 2022 United States House of Representatives elections. In that cycle, candidates with severe legal issues maintained base support but fractured their party's broader appeal.

The fantasy of the fighter

The strongest case for Paxton is that he is an effective warrior. His supporters, like retired Army veteran Thomas Howell, appreciate his alignment with Donald Trump. They see his 107 lawsuits against the Biden administration as a sign of strength. They argue that his legal battles are merely political persecution by a liberal establishment.

This is magical thinking. Being 'effective' at filing lawsuits is not the same as being a competent legislator. The Senate requires the ability to build coalitions and pass budgets. Paxton's record is one of scorched earth. Mother Jones reports a history that includes an indictment and a biblical divorce. A cell-phone video even shows him in Dubai with two fugitives and a woman who is not his wife.

Paxton's campaign tries to frame Talarico as too liberal. 53% of voters worry about Talarico's positions. But 50% of voters are concerned Paxton is too close to Donald Trump. The difference is that "too liberal" is a policy disagreement. "Too corrupt" is a character flaw. State Rep. Jeff Leach put it plainly: he believes Paxton is a "sophisticated criminal."

The GOP is betting that the MAGA brand can override a history of corruption. They are spending heavily to make it happen. Elon Musk is spending to support Paxton's campaign. But money cannot buy a personality transplant. It cannot fix a favorability rating that is underwater.

The race will come down to whether disaffected Republicans can "grit their teeth" and vote for Paxton. That is the gamble. But the data suggests they are tired of the drama. Talarico leads by 23 points among women with a college degree. He leads by 28 points among voters under age 30. These are the demographics that define the future of the state.

Texas deserves a senator who can operate within the rules of the institution. It does not need a representative who views the law as a suggestion and the court system as a personal playground. The preference for Republican control of the Senate is slim. That narrow margin is not enough to save a candidate who is viewed as a criminal by his own colleagues.

James Talarico is the pragmatic choice. He is a principled leader who is willing to listen to those with whom he disagrees. He represents a return to the boring, trustworthy competence that Texas needs. The era of the chaos agent has reached its limit.

The numbers prove that Ken Paxton is an institutional liability. His support relies on a base that ignores the law, while his opposition is a growing coalition of the exhausted. When the "double haters" and the non-MAGA Republicans finally decide that character matters, the tie will break. James Talarico will win because the Texas electorate will eventually choose a functioning government over a permanent scandal.

Ken Paxton ties the Texas Senate race but remains a liability

The arithmetic of a ceiling

The institutional break

The fantasy of the fighter

Sources