GOP cash cannot save the Senate as Trump drags down candidates

By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington · October 22, 2026

High early-vote enthusiasm and a 33% approval rating for Donald Trump have put Republicans on the defensive, making a Democratic Senate majority the most workable outcome.

Democrats are going to take the Senate. The GOP is betting on a fantasy. They think they can buy their way out of a 33% approval rating for Donald Trump. They are treating the American electorate like a vending machine. You put in enough millions, and you get the seat. But the arithmetic of this cycle does not support that magical thinking. When the top of the ticket is this toxic, no amount of advertising can save the down-ballot candidates.

The arithmetic of early enthusiasm

The data from the early vote is a warning shot. ABC News reports that more than 18 million Americans have already voted. This surge is not evenly split. Registered Democrats cast a higher share of early votes in almost every state.

The margins are stark. Mail-in or drop-off voters support Democrats over Republicans by a 50-point margin. Early in-person voters favor Democrats by 14 points. Republicans still hold the edge for Election Day in-person voters by 11 points. But the momentum is with the left.

In Georgia and Iowa, early votes are more Democratic than they were. This is not a random fluctuation. It is a coordinated response to an unpopular administration. The GOP is fighting a fire with a water pistol.

The fantasy of the spending war

Republicans are attempting to drown out the noise with cash. CNN reports that more than $300 million is being spent on the most likely to flip Senate seats in the final weeks. This is the GOP's primary strategy: outspend the opposition to override the mood of the country.

Nowhere is this more obvious than in Texas. The GOP has poured more than $380 million into the race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. This spending is fueled largely by political groups linked to Elon Musk. The GOP's best argument is structural. They point to the fact that Donald Trump won Texas. They believe that a deep red baseline can protect Paxton from his own legal baggage.

This is a failure of logic. Spending does not create enthusiasm. You cannot buy a mandate when the incumbent president is a liability. The Musk money is a hedge against a reality the GOP refuses to accept.

The collapse of the red wall

The map shows a party in retreat. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown holds a 49% to 44% lead over Jon Husted. The parties are spending roughly $75 million in the final two weeks. Husted is trying to distance himself from the chaos. He said of a vicious attack ad run by Vivek Ramaswamy, “I would not have run that ad.” It is a measured comment, but it is too little, too late.

Michigan is following the same script. NBC News reports that Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers. In that state, likely voters view their decision as mainly against Trump. El-Sayed is running a disciplined campaign. He says he is "running for Senate and happens to be Muslim." He is letting the GOP's own volatility do the work for him.

Even the stalwarts are shaking. In Maine, Susan Collins is the only Republican senator in a state won by Kamala Harris. She is locked in a toss-up. Republicans are on track to spend nearly $17 million there. Democrats are spending about $14 million. The GOP is losing its grip on the edges.

This cycle follows the established pattern of United States Senate elections. Elections in the United States are held for government officials at the federal, state, and local levels, to perform political representation. We have seen this play out across decades. When the president is a drag, the candidates beneath him sink.

U.S. News & World Report notes that Democrats need 51 seats to win a majority. They are on track to get them. They are not winning because of a sudden surge in ideological purity. They are winning because they are the only workable alternative to a dysfunctional White House.

Democrats will flip the Senate by securing net gains. They will do this by winning the toss-ups in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan. The GOP's reliance on megadonor spending is a desperate attempt to ignore the polling. They are mispricing the crisis. High early-vote enthusiasm and the weight of a 33% approval rating will crush the GOP's financial advantage. The boring reality of voter discontent will win.

GOP cash cannot save the Senate as Trump drags down candidates

The arithmetic of early enthusiasm

The fantasy of the spending war

The collapse of the red wall

Sources