Trump uses French unrest as a prop for his midterm campaign

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 21, 2026

Donald Trump is leveraging French street violence to fuel his midterm campaign, prompting a rebuke from Emmanuel Macron and exposing a transactional foreign policy that trades alliances for domestic points.

Donald Trump is treating the French Republic like a campaign billboard. By framing urban unrest in Paris and Marseille as a civilizational collapse, he is trading the credibility of the American presidency for a few points in a midterm poll. This is the logic of a real estate agent, not a head of state. He is wrong to treat a strategic ally as a cautionary tale for his domestic base. In doing so, he proves that in his world, the word of the United States is a currency to be spent, not a bond to be kept.

The price of a campaign talking point

The French state is currently fragile. According to The Guardian, the yield on the French government’s benchmark 10-year bonds passed 5% on Wednesday. This is the highest level since 2002. The government admitted it lost control of the streets on 17 October. Riots broke out across the country, organized by students, trade unions, and the Yellow Vest movement.

President Emmanuel Macron is fighting a two-front war. He is managing domestic rage while securing energy supplies. Euronews reports that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain pledged a combined additional 200,000 tonnes of diesel per month to France. Macron is attempting to stabilize his country while Donald Trump uses that instability as a weapon.

Trump claimed France was "under siege, looted and set ablaze by migrants, jihadists and communists." He used the violence to suggest the same fate awaits America if the Democrats win. This friction mirrors the United States-France relations under Donald Trump (2017-2021). It was a period of public friction and contrasting styles. It is the same clash seen at the G7 Summit 2018. There, Trump's rhetoric on trade clashed with Macron's vision of a coordinated alliance.

Macron did not stay silent. Speaking from Doha, he slammed the "stupid comments" of foreign leaders. He accused them of campaigning at France's expense. He specifically noted that some leaders are "naively spreading narratives" and using AI-generated images of scenes that never happened.

A ledger of diminishing assets

The Trump-Macron Relationship shares the mechanism of using personal rapport and direct engagement to manage an unpredictable leader who leverages foreign instability for domestic political gain. Macron tries to maintain a bridge to the Oval Office while the man in it uses French streets as a backdrop for a campaign ad.

This transactional lens extends beyond France. Balkan Insight reports that the Trump administration now views Kosovo as an asset of diminishing value. Kosovo's parliament elected a new President following 20 months of political wrangling. The political deadlock included two early elections and nearly a third. Washington no longer sees a strategic obligation here. It sees a bargaining chip.

Trump treats the world as a ledger. He views allies as assets to be leveraged for immediate personal gain. Trump treats this like the Notre Dame cathedral fire (2019). He uses a national crisis to leverage his own political position. This mirrors the shift in France-Israel relations (2023-2024). In that case, cooperation shifted to public accusations of "stupid" strategic views.

This approach is evident in his pursuit of the Nobel Peace Prize. Daily Maverick reports that Trump claims he ended eight wars. However, the record is less tidy. International monitoring groups report Israel conducted air and drone strikes on approximately 325 of the first 361 days of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire.

The human cost is high. Gaza health ministry and UN reports state at least 1,493 Palestinians were killed and about 5,299 people were wounded during that ceasefire. Trump dismissed the Nobel Committee as "forever discredited" after they honored Navi Pillay. Pillay was recognized for pressing leaders to comply with the rule of law.

The delusion of the deal

The most capable advocate for the White House would argue that Trump is simply being honest. They would say he is warning Americans about the "decline of Western civilisation." They would claim his rhetoric is a necessary wake-up call. This is a delusion. Trump is not warning the public; he is manipulating them. He uses synthetic reality to scare voters. He sanctions the International Criminal Court (ICC) to shield himself and his partners from accountability. He promotes the export of the American AI technology stack via Executive Order 14320 to secure dominance, not partnership.

The historical pattern predicts that when the U.S. treats alliances as transactional, the allies seek alternative security and energy anchors. This would only change if Washington restored institutional guardrails. Instead, Trump has instituted a Board of Peace consisting of oil sheikhs to undermine the UN. He has added Norway to a list of "disgraced countries."

France is now bracing for more violence on 24 October. Macron has vowed that those who want to cause disorder will be prevented. He is trying to project strength while his borrowing costs spike. He does not need a partner who treats his national crisis as a campaign prop.

Washington will increasingly treat regional security partners in Europe and the Balkans as transactional bargaining chips rather than strategic obligations. By treating the world as a series of shakedowns, the Trump administration is destroying the only thing that makes American power sustainable: the belief that a U.S. commitment actually means something. In five years, the cost of these midterm points will be a world where no one believes a word that comes out of the Oval Office.

Trump uses French unrest as a prop for his midterm campaign

The price of a campaign talking point

A ledger of diminishing assets

The delusion of the deal

Sources