Trump drags down Republicans as fantasy arithmetic fails
By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington ·
President Trump's plummeting popularity and soaring fuel costs have created a liability for down-ballot candidates, leaving the GOP clinging to a fantasy of MAGA enthusiasm.
President Donald Trump has become a lead weight around the neck of his own party. A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts his approval rating at 33%. This is the lowest mark of either of his terms. Before the midterms, the president is no longer an asset in the suburbs or the swing districts. He is a liability. The Republican strategy of relying on a core base to swamp the moderates is a fantasy that fails the basic test of arithmetic.
The arithmetic of a landslide
The numbers are not just bad; they are decisive. El País reports a Reuters and Ipsos poll showing Trump's popularity at 31%. In that same poll, 47% of registered voters lean toward Democrats. This is the 2018 United States midterm elections all over again. An incumbent president's low popularity and polarization acted as a liability in swing districts. That same mechanism is dragging down down-ballot candidates today.
The GOP is betting on the 94% approval rating Trump enjoys among MAGA-affiliated Republicans, according to PBS. They believe this intensity will override the disgust of the middle. But the current gap is a canyon.
Energy dominance as a fairy tale
Voters do not care about proclamations; they care about the pump. El País notes that gasoline prices have risen by nearly 45% since the war against Iran began in February. Diesel prices have jumped nearly 80% since the start of the year.
Trump is trying to buy his way out with an aid plan for diesel. He is touting "National Energy Dominance Month" and a deal for 65 billion barrels of oil in Venezuela. These are distant fantasies. A deal in Caracas does not lower the cost of a tractor in Kansas. The administration is selling a geopolitical victory to people who cannot afford to drive to work.
Institutional war as a distraction
While the map burns, the White House is picking fights with the machinery of government. The administration recently established a committee of inquiry to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook. They are seeking her removal over alleged false statements about mortgage instruments. This is a classic diversion. When a president's political flank crumbles, he looks for a scapegoat in the technocracy.
The strongest case for the GOP is that Trump's rallies still draw crowds. His advocates argue that the "warm embrace" of the base will drive turnout to historic levels. They claim the 94% MAGA approval will offset the losses in the suburbs. This is wrong. The Cook Political Report identifies seven key Senate states, including Ohio and Texas. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton is already trailing James Talarico. In Kansas, Adam Hamilton is in a close race for a seat Republicans have held since 1932. Enthusiasm in red districts does not win Senate seats in purple states.
The Republican caucus is trapped. They must hold the nose of the MAGA base without alienating the disaffected moderates. They cannot do both. The administration's focus on institutional purges and Venezuelan oil reserves shows a total detachment from the voter's ledger.
The GOP will lose control of Congress because they have mistaken a loud minority for a winning majority. The voters are punishing the party for fantasy arithmetic and a failure of boring, basic competence. No amount of Rose Garden dinners or red-state rallies can erase the cost of diesel or the reality of a 31% approval rating. The institutions of the ballot box will do what they always do: punish the party that forgets how to govern for the center.