Trump open to summit with Xi and Putin — to discuss denuclearization

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 20, 2026

President Trump's openness to a trilateral summit in Shenzhen, paired with sanctions waivers for Russia, prioritizes personal rapport over strategic stability and abandons Ukraine.

President Donald Trump is treating the global security architecture like a real estate closing. By signaling an openness to a trilateral summit with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in Shenzhen next month, he is not conducting diplomacy. He is conducting a fire sale of American credibility. The price of admission for this meeting is already being paid in the currency of sanctions waivers and the betrayal of a sovereign ally. Trump is wrong to believe that a photo op in China can replace a coherent strategy for European security or nuclear non-proliferation.

The lure of the big room

In the world of cables, we look at interests first. President Trump’s interest is the "deal." He wants a headline victory on "denuclearization," a topic he has pursued for two years. Vladimir Putin’s interest is the fragmentation of the West. He wants a separate peace in Ukraine that rewards Russian aggression. Xi Jinping’s interest is the role of the indispensable mediator.

The capabilities here are skewed. Trump has the power to lift pressure. On October 16, 2026, he signed an order waiving key sanctions on Moscow. He also announced a deal allowing Russia to supply diesel fuel on the global market. These are not negotiating chips; they are concessions given before the meeting has even been scheduled.

The statements follow the pattern. Trump told CNBC that he would meet the two leaders, adding, "I would do it, not so much for Ukraine." He claims Russia has been "fine on Ukraine" and "haven't been doing much." This is a startling misreading of a four-year war. It mirrors the US-China Trade War, where aggressive tariffs were used as leverage for a bilateral deal that ultimately failed to meet its targets. Now, Trump is using sanctions waivers as the incentive.

The Kremlin is playing this perfectly. According to Axios, Putin has floated the idea of this meeting since July. He raised it again in two phone calls, including one on October 9. The Russian president is not seeking a partnership. He is seeking a bypass.

The Singapore syndrome

The administration will argue that direct leader-to-leader diplomacy is the only way to break a deadlock. They will say that traditional diplomatic channels are too slow and that only a "strongman" can negotiate with other strongmen. This is the most seductive argument in the Trump playbook. It suggests that personal rapport can override structural conflict.

This is the exact mechanism of the Singapore Summit. In 2018, the world watched a high-profile, symbolic meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un. It prioritized the "deal" and the handshake over technical verification and established diplomatic frameworks. The result was a flurry of cameras and zero substantive denuclearization.

We saw the end of this road at the Hanoi Summit. That meeting collapsed because the two sides could not align expectations on sanctions relief and disarmament. Trump is attempting a repeat of this performance on a larger scale. He is substituting a roadmap for a summit.

A trilateral meeting in Shenzhen on November 18 or 19 would be a triumph of theater over substance. As Euronews reports, China's foreign ministry has not even expressed willingness to hold the summit. Trump is chasing a meeting that the other participants may not even want, while giving away the leverage that would make such a meeting productive.

The KGB playbook

To understand why this is a trap, one must look at the man in the room. Vladimir Putin is a former KGB foreign intelligence officer. He was trained in subversion and transactional leverage. He does not view summits as opportunities for mutual compromise. He views them as tactical maneuvers to fracture adversaries.

While Trump talks about "denuclearization," Putin is tightening the noose around Kyiv. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reported that U.S. intelligence sharing has been disrupted. He also claims that Starlink and Starshield services from SpaceX have been degraded. No explanation has been provided to Ukraine.

Trump’s response is a study in diplomatic savagery. He told CNBC that "Zelenskyy doesn't know what he's talking about." He added that it is "time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine." This is not a negotiation strategy. It is a signal for regime change. He is treating the war in Ukraine as a nuisance to be settled, rather than a struggle for the rule of law.

The cost of this move will be felt for five years. By waiving sanctions and sidelining Kyiv, the U.S. tells every ally that American commitments are subject to the whims of a single man. It tells every adversary that the path to concessions is not through compliance, but through patience and flattery.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister, Andrii Sybiha, is correct. A meeting between the leaders of Russia, China, and the U.S. without Kyiv would only encourage Putin to continue the war. It validates the Russian belief that Ukraine is a province to be traded, not a nation to be respected.

The hypothesis is clear. This summit will likely happen. It will focus on trade and a vague framework for arms control. It will formally exclude the Ukrainians. In the process, the U.S. will trade its role as the leader of the free world for the role of a junior partner in a new, authoritarian alignment.

The tragedy is that the professionals in the room saw this coming. They know that credibility is earned in the boring years of treaty maintenance and spent in the flashy hours of a summit. Trump is spending the nation's credibility to buy a seat at a table where he is the only one who believes in the "deal."

Vladimir Putin has spent his career manipulating the desire of Western leaders to be seen as "deal-makers." He is currently winning. By the time the APEC summit in Shenzhen concludes, the U.S. will have given away its sanctions leverage, alienated its most courageous ally, and gained nothing but a few photographs.

Trump open to summit with Xi and Putin — to discuss denuclearization

The lure of the big room

The Singapore syndrome

The KGB playbook

Sources