Trump uses intelligence to squeeze Zelenskyy into a deal
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
After briefly suspending early warnings of Russian strikes, the Trump administration has resumed intelligence sharing to maintain a facade of support while pressuring Kyiv to surrender.
The Trump administration is treating the survival of a sovereign state like a thermostat. By turning the flow of intelligence on and off, Washington is attempting to coerce President Volodymyr Zelenskyy into a peace deal that mirrors Moscow's demands. The recent resumption of early warnings for Russian missile strikes is not a gesture of goodwill. It is a tactical reset. The administration is using the basic safety of Ukrainian civilians as a bargaining chip to force a surrender.
The intelligence faucet
The US has resumed sharing intelligence with Kyiv regarding Russian missile strikes, according to The Guardian. This follows a brief suspension of advance warnings for ballistic attacks. Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the change after meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff in Oslo. "Now it works. It’s great," Zelenskyy said. He noted that these warnings are vital for children and civilians to hear when a missile is coming.
This is not a technical glitch. It is a signal. The US is demonstrating that it can blind Ukraine at will.
The fiction of technical failure
Secretary of State Marco Rubio denies any political directive to harm Ukraine. In a phone call with Zelenskyy, Rubio attributed the intelligence gaps to technical failures. He also claimed that Patriot interceptors are in short supply globally. Axios and the BBC report that Rubio called accusations of withholding intelligence "scandalous."
Rubio’s explanation is a convenient fiction. The timing of these "failures" is too precise. They coincide with Donald Trump lifting US sanctions on Russian diesel to lower fuel prices before the midterms. The US is trading Ukrainian lives for fuel prices. At least nine people were killed in Ukraine on October 20. A Russian drone killed three people on the Kyiv to Odesa highway.
While the intelligence flows again, other taps remain closed. The Pentagon has blocked the delivery of Patriot interceptors paid for by other countries. Restrictions also remain on Starshield, the military-grade satellite service. These limits slow Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian positions.
The cost of strategic calibration
This is the Lend-Lease Act in reverse. In the 1940s, the US calibrated aid to win a war. Today, the US is calibrating aid to force a conclusion on the Kremlin's terms.
The administration wants a quick win. It is pushing a trilateral summit between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping. This would bypass Kyiv entirely. Zelenskyy has been clear: "There can be nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine."
The European Union is watching this erosion of trust. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stated that American negotiators have tried to push Ukraine into surrender for one and a half years. She noted that Ukraine has not surrendered because Europe has been supporting it. The numbers support her. RTÉ reports that European countries and EU institutions have allocated €237 billion to support Ukraine. The US has provided €115 billion.
Washington is no longer acting as a security guarantor. It is acting as a broker for the aggressor. Steve Witkoff, the de facto envoy to Putin, has drafted a 28-point peace plan. This plan calls for significant territorial concessions and the renunciation of NATO.
The administration believes it can squeeze Zelenskyy until he accepts these terms. It believes that by restoring intelligence and withholding missiles, it can maintain just enough stability to prevent a total collapse while making victory impossible. This is a gamble on the desperation of a partner.
The administration is burning the most valuable asset in diplomacy: the American word. By treating intelligence as a transactional tool, Washington has taught every ally that US support is a temporary convenience, not a commitment. This is a miscalculation that will cost the US its leadership in Europe for a generation. The administration is not securing peace; it is securing a precedent for abandonment.
Sources
- The Guardian: US has resumed sharing intelligence with Ukraine about Russian strikes, says Zelenskyy
- BBC: Zelensky says intelligence sharing on Russian strikes 'works now' and Ukraine 'thankful' to US
- Axios: Trump isn't out to hurt Ukraine, Rubio tells Zelensky
- Ukrinform: Rubio: Ukraine interceptor deliveries may have been delayed, but not for political reasons
- RTÉ: Early warning system resumes following attacks - Zelensky