GOP ad spending cannot buy Donald Trump immunity from arithmetic
By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington ·
As deep-red districts become battlegrounds, Republicans rely on spending to offset Donald Trump's approval ratings, ignoring the reality that arithmetic and history will decide the House.
Republicans are selling a fantasy. They believe a massive war chest can insulate them from historical gravity. It cannot. The math of the November 3 midterms is grim for the GOP. They are mispricing the risk of a populist backlash.
The arithmetic of the flip
The BBC reports that Republicans currently hold 218 seats in the House, plus one independent who votes with them. This is a razor-thin margin.
The political environment is "increasingly favorable for Democrats and grim for Republicans," according to The Washington Post. This shift is pushing the battle into red districts that were once considered locks for the GOP.
The Cook Political Report identifies 21 House districts as toss-ups.
Democrats have a clear path to a majority. They can win the House if they take 29 districts classed as likely or leaning Democratic.
History is not on the GOP's side. Since 1934, the president's party has lost an average of 27 seats in the House during midterms.
The $1 billion delusion
The GOP's strongest case is their bank account. At the end of August, the Republican National Committee and allied groups had over $600m cash on hand. Democrats had just under $400m.
But money is a tool, not a strategy. Donald Trump's current approval rating is approximately 37%.
Voters are not reacting to ad buys; they are reacting to their wallets. Trump's approval rating was around 42% before air strikes against Iran in February.
The gap between White House rhetoric and reality is wide. Donald Trump stated in his February 24 State of the Union address that gas was "now below $2.30 a gallon in most states."
The reality was different. Gas prices hit $4 in the US following the start of the war with Iran.
The public noticed. An August poll found 63% of respondents disapproved of Trump's handling of the war with Iran.
The GOP is trying to buy their way out of this. Trump's MAGA Inc group held more than $400m at the end of August.
This spending is staggering. According to AdImpact, more than $1bn in political ads were broadcast in September.
The GOP spent $200m more than Democrats on political ads in September. This is magical thinking. As Meredith McGehee told the Post, "Having tons of money doesn't guarantee victory."
The institutional cost
The GOP is relying on maps they drew themselves. The Guardian notes that mid-decade redistricting made Florida's 13th district "a bit redder." In Alabama's district, redistricting carved out the hometown of Democrat Shomari Figures.
These tactics create a false sense of security. In Florida, prognosticators have already shifted the race from a "likely win" for Republican Anna Paulina Luna to "leaning toward her." In Texas's 34th, redistricting made the seat "tougher for Gonzalez," yet the district remains volatile.
This is the mechanism of The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections, midterm elections that occurred during President Donald Trump's first term in office.
The volatility is not just electoral; it is institutional. Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum establishing a committee of inquiry into Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook. He has scheduled an in-person hearing for November 5.
This is a direct assault on the independence of the central bank. It is timed to occur just two days after the polls close. It signals a presidency that views independent agencies as subordinates to be fired.
RNZ reports that at least $10 billion has been spent on advertising by parties and donors. But no amount of spending can erase the trend of red districts becoming competitive.
The GOP will lose the House because they believe arithmetic is optional. If Democrats capture both chambers, they will likely launch expansive committee investigations and a third impeachment proceeding against Donald Trump. The White House will likely press forward with the November 5 hearing to unseat Lisa D. Cook regardless of the result. This will trigger a constitutional clash over the Federal Reserve. The GOP's reliance on a war chest over competence has left the institutions of government fragile and the map wide open.
Sources
- The Washington Post: Deep-red districts are now House battlegrounds. These are the races to watch.
- BBC: Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost
- The Guardian: Is the blue wave real? Under-the-radar races that could hand Congress to Democrats
- RNZ: Explainer: What are the US midterms and why are they a big deal?