A super El Niño winter is coming and the first official forecast is in
By Daniel Okafor · Reporting from New York ·
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts a powerful El Niño that threatens the southern United States with floods, proving that record rainfall on dry soil brings disaster instead of relief.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued a winter warning. A near-record El Niño is coming. Many see this as a cure for drought. They are wrong. The danger lies in the volume of rain hitting dry earth. Record-warm oceans turn relief into disaster.
The Godzilla mechanism
Brian Brettschneider is a senior scientist in Anchorage. He analyzed 11 major El Niño events. His research shows these phases bring warmer temperatures and less snow to Alaska. The 1997-1998 El Niño followed this pattern. Extreme Pacific warming then triggered record rainfall and catastrophic flooding in California. The event caused economic losses of US$5.7 trillion within five years.
Dry soil creates danger
Rain fails as relief when the ground cannot hold the water. Ken Graham is the director of the National Weather Service. He said too much precipitation on dry soil fuels flash floods. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency. CNN reports that post-tropical cyclone Rachel hit Long Beach in October 2026. The 2024 California floods proved these rivers turn rain into wreckage. Damage reached $1.55 billion.
A warming baseline
The North will be warmer. The Guardian reports that warmer temperatures are possible over half of the country. Climate Central found that winter is the fastest-warming season for most of the United States. Annual snow amounts dropped in nearly two-thirds of the country since 1970. The 2023-2024 El Niño brought similar warmth to the northern states. This event was powerful.
What is the cost of confidence?
Predictability does not ensure safety. The 2015-2016 El Niño drove above-average precipitation and flooding in the southern United States. That event produced an active season across the Southeast. Jon Gottschalck is a meteorologist. Gottschalck said storms along the southern tier may turn northeast. These storms bring heavy rain to major cities. The forecast maps a specific risk. A "super" event is not a standard winter. Evidence suggests the relief of rain masks the violence of floods.
Sources
- CNN: A super El Niño winter is coming and the first official forecast is in
- KTOO: What a ‘Godzilla’ El Niño could mean for snow across Alaska this winter
- The Guardian: US winter is likely to be wetter and warmer, forecasters say, with more snow in the south
- CBS News: Winter may bring snow and rain to some drought-stricken U.S. states, new forecast shows