Trump's Alaska trip cannot override the math for Dan Sullivan
By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington ·
President Donald Trump recently flew nearly 4,000 miles to a hockey rink in Alaska’s Matanuska-Susitna Valley. He went to save Senator Dan S. Sullivan. But the GOP is selling a fantasy. They believe a high-profile rally can override the cold arithmetic of a split ticket and a unique voting system. Trump is treating a structural math problem like a motivational one. In a state where independents outnumber both major parties, the "MAGA" surge has a ceiling. You cannot rally your way out of a ballot designed to punish divided parties.
The spoiler in the system
The most immediate threat to the incumbent is not a Democrat, but a namesake. Daniel Sullivan, a retired schoolteacher, is also running as a Republican. The Guardian reports that Daniel Sullivan took 2.5% of the vote in the August primary. Trump calls him "the fake Dan Sullivan" and claims he was "put up by" the Democrats.
The evidence suggests this is more than a coincidence. Dossier records show that political strategist Amber Lee helped Daniel Sullivan with his website. Lee has a history of working with Democratic campaigns. Furthermore, Daniel Sullivan previously gave $100 to Mary Peltola in 2022 and $30 in 2024.
Trump argues that 2.5% is too much and "could be the difference." He is right, but for the wrong reasons. This is not "cheating." It is a precision strike on a vulnerable incumbent. This mirrors the 2018 United States Senate elections, where base energy failed to move a skeptical general electorate.
The ranked-choice trap
The GOP's real enemy is the 2020 voter referendum that instituted ranked-choice voting. This system allows Alaskans to rank up to five candidates. Trump calls it a "scam." He is fighting the mechanism because he cannot fight the math.
The 2022 Alaska special election provides the exact blueprint for this disaster. In that race, a split conservative vote and ranked-choice voting allowed Mary Peltola to win in a red state. The mechanism is the same here. If the "real" and "fake" Sullivans split the right-wing vote, Peltola can slide through the middle.
The strongest case for the GOP is that Alaska supported Trump by a wide margin in 2024. They argue the state's red lean is too deep for a spoiler to matter. This is magical thinking. It ignores the fact that Trump's own approval rating in Alaska is currently underwater, according to Politico. When the base is energized but the center is drifting, the structural architecture of the ballot becomes the deciding factor.
The cost of living reality
While Trump focuses on "fake" candidates, Alaskans are focusing on their wallets. The Washington Post spoke with Doug Glenn, a Trump supporter in Palmer. Glenn recently bought a $53 pair of Levi’s and noted that "everything is expensive." He specifically cited fuel costs as a primary issue.
This economic anxiety creates a window for Peltola. She is a former House lawmaker who knows how to project local interests over national party lines. This is the 2022 United States House of Representatives special election all over again. Peltola won then by focusing on costs and indigenous interests.
We are seeing the ghosts of the 2006 United States Senate elections. Back then, incumbents struggled against a shifting economic tide in safe seats. Dan S. Sullivan is now that incumbent. He blames Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer for high energy costs. But Peltola's campaign says she will work with Trump to "unleash Alaska energy." She is stealing the GOP's best talking point while the incumbent clings to a nationalized grudge.
The GOP is attempting to repeal ranked-choice voting via a ballot measure. That is a long-term institutional fight. It does nothing for the November 3 election. The hypothesis is simple: Daniel Sullivan will siphon enough protest votes to deny the incumbent a plurality. Under the ranked-choice system, that path leads straight to Mary Peltola. The boring, workable answer would have been to consolidate the field and address fuel prices. Instead, the GOP flew a plane 3,400 miles to shout at a crowd. You cannot shout louder than a mathematical formula.