Haviv Rettig Gur exposes the cost of Netanyahu's broken trust
By Caroline Ashford · Reporting from Richmond, Virginia ·
Following October 7, Haviv Rettig Gur argues on The Free Press that Benjamin Netanyahu has spent down Israel’s institutional trust, leaving a nation of warriors led by an incompetent political class.
On the latest episode of The Free Press, analyst Haviv Rettig Gur describes an Israel where the "luxury beliefs" of a more peaceful era have been scorched away. The most striking realization is not merely that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in political peril, but that his government has systematically spent down the country’s most precious inheritance: the trust between the citizen and the state. For a nation that relies on a "generation of warriors" to leave their families and small businesses for hundreds of days at a time, that trust is the only thing keeping the roof from caving in.
The Broken Covenant of the Draft Gur argues on the podcast that the exemption of the ultra-orthodox from military service has shifted from a philosophical debate over equality to a cold crisis of math. Before October 7, it was a "luxury belief" to allow a segment of the population to opt out of the common defense. Today, military planners say they literally do not have the soldiers required to hold the borders. This hits the family level with a quietly cutting force. Gur notes that while some men have served 435 days, seeing their livelihoods fold, the government has "doubled down" on exemptions and welfare for those who do not contribute to the war effort. A community can outlast a movement, but it cannot outlast a social contract that asks everything of the few and nothing of the many.
The Tribal Fortress and the Concept of Failure Netanyahu’s political longevity is built on a "culture of loyalty" within the Likud party, which Gur notes has had only four leaders since 1948. This stability is usually a conservative virtue, but here it has been used to insulate a "comically villainous" level of incompetence. Gur points to the "concept"—the strategic paradigm that Hamas could be contained—which "crashed down" on October 7. The strongest case for Netanyahu is that he is the "liberal economic reformer of old" and a steady hand against a "secular war" on religious life. Yet, as Gur explains, even if one agrees with the Prime Minister on the substance of the threats, the "scale of stupidity" in handling diplomatic aid and public perception has been egregiously costly.
Arson as a Negotiation Tactic The most damning portion of the discussion centers on the judicial overhaul. The Israeli right is not wrong to observe that their Supreme Court is a global outlier, possessing a power that would make an American justice blush. Constitutional reform is indeed overdue. However, Gur argues that such reform is a "complex negotiation" requiring immense trust across time. By starting with a "maximalist" position and "burning every possible imaginable iota of trust," Netanyahu did not just fail to reform the courts; he made the very idea of reform radioactive. He "cheated his way around" previous agreements, such as the rotation with Benny Gantz, proving that he views the basic laws of the state as "tricks and sticks" rather than load-bearing institutions.
History suggests that disasters in Israel eventually demonstrate themselves in "profound changes" to the political system, much as the 1973 war led to the fall of the Labor party in 1977. The current leadership oversaw the greatest failure in the state’s history and has yet to take responsibility, opting instead to pressure right-wing factions to ignore the "generation of warriors" returning from the front. A leader who treats the fundamental institutions of his country as a personal shield cannot be surprised when the people finally decide the price of his survival is too high to pay. Netanyahu has mistaken tribal endurance for national stewardship, and the bill for that error is now coming due.