Trump trades Ukrainian security for Russian fuel before midterms
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
President Donald Trump eased sanctions on Russian diesel to lower fuel prices before the November midterms, a move that grants Vladimir Putin leverage while abandoning a key ally.
Donald Trump is trading the strategic integrity of the West for a handful of barrels of diesel and a hopeful bump in the November polls. By easing sanctions on Russian fuel, the president has not found a clever solution to inflation. He has instead handed Vladimir Putin a financial lifeline and a geopolitical weapon. This is not statecraft. It is a campaign prop.
The campaign calculation
The administration's interest is simple: lower the cost of diesel before the November midterm elections. According to the BBC, the average US diesel price is $6.28 a gallon. It hit a record high of $6.53 at the end of September. Trump believes that lowering these costs will appease "Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers."
To achieve this, the US Treasury is suspending sanctions on Russian diesel exports until 7 April. This move shatters the international sanctions regime that CNN reports battered Russia’s economy.
House Majority Whip Tom Emmer told ABC News that the president is "thinking out of the box" to help the American people. This is the strongest case for the deal. It suggests a pragmatic leader using every tool to fight inflation. But the math does not support the theater.
Trump announced that Russia will immediately supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel. He promised 500,000 tonnes in November. These numbers are modest. The BBC reports the US uses approximately 3.6 million barrels of diesel per day. The shipments are a drop in the bucket.
The Moscow leverage
Russia's interest is to break Western unity and fund its war. Alexander Novak, Putin’s oil point man, is already moving the goalposts. Novak told Tass that exports could reach 3.0-3.5 million metric tonnes per month by year-end. He claims this will "balance global supply and demand."
This is the Nord Stream 2 mechanism reborn. That pipeline was designed to create energy dependency to grant a hostile power geopolitical leverage over a third-party ally, specifically Ukraine. By lifting sanctions now, Washington is again using energy to bind a third-party ally to Moscow's will.
The cost of this leverage is already visible. Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. He warned President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that he "better damn well stop" attacking Russian refineries. He even urged Ukrainians to replace Zelenskyy at new elections.
Zelenskyy has called the deal an "investment in a war that must be ended." He noted that Russian strikes against 6 energy targets prove Moscow has no interest in a ceasefire.
The price of credibility
The administration is using every lever to manage the fallout. Executive Order 14435 directs the Treasury to defer diesel fuel tax payments. This is a domestic attempt to put money in the pockets of truckers. It is a blunt instrument.
But the cost in five years will be a permanent loss of American credibility. Seven senators, including Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski, argue that Washington should not provide Putin a financial lifeline. They note that Congress explicitly banned Russian energy imports in 2022.
Such reversals teach allies that American commitments are temporary. They teach adversaries that sanctions are negotiable if the timing is right for a US election.
This deal is a miscalculation. It treats a strategic adversary like a vendor. It assumes Putin will play fair with the market while his missiles hit Ukrainian grids.
The temporary suspension of Treasury sanctions will fail to lower retail fuel prices before the midterms. This will compel the administration to deploy further emergency executive orders under the guise of agricultural relief. Trump has traded a statutory ban and a strategic alliance for a modest supply of fuel that will not move the needle at the pump. He has given Putin the one thing the Kremlin wants: the knowledge that the US will abandon its allies for a few cents a gallon.
Sources
- CNN: Russia deal, execution plans and deportations tell a defining tale about Trump and power
- CNBC: CNBC Daily Open: Trump defends diesel deal
- Free Malaysia Today: Russia says its diesel exports may exceed volumes announced by Trump
- BBC: Trump faces growing backlash over plans to import diesel from Russia
- SABC News: Russia says can export 3.5 mln tons of diesel monthly by year-end