Hurricane Simon nears Jalisco, proving hope is no defense
By Daniel Okafor · Reporting from New York ·
Hurricane Simon's rapid intensification into a Category 4 storm threatens Mexico's Pacific coast with lethal floods, proving that coastal residents cannot rely on hope to survive.
Hurricane Simon is a Category 4 storm. It carries maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. The storm is moving toward the west-central coast of Mexico. Some residents in Puerto Vallarta are waiting for officials to tell them when to close their shops. They are hoping the storm does not affect them. They are wrong. Hope is not a strategy against a major hurricane. The facts of the storm's speed and the region's geography make a disaster likely.
The speed of the surge
Simon formed on Wednesday offshore from Manzanillo, Mexico, according to Yale Climate Connections. It drifted west as a tropical storm. Then it swung north and strengthened. By Saturday night, the storm sat just below the threshold for a Category 5 classification.
The National Hurricane Center reported that Simon was about 65 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo on Saturday. The storm moved northward at 5 mph. The center expects Simon to approach the coast as a major hurricane. A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or stronger.
The disruption is already visible. Simon disrupted 11 airports. Commercial flights at Manzanillo were canceled. Volaris suspended services at Puerto Vallarta, Colima, Tepic, and Uruapan, Yale Climate Connections reported.
The danger is not just the wind. The National Hurricane Center warned of a dangerous storm surge. Large and destructive waves will accompany that surge. In Puerto Vallarta, businesses boarded up windows on Saturday morning. Canadian tourist Ed Currie said he did not know what to expect. He planned to stay in his hotel and look out the window.
Hope is not a strategy
In Puerto Vallarta, Jesús Gómez said he would work as usual. He will close only when Civil Protection officials tell him to take shelter. This approach ignores the mechanism of rapid intensification.
AccuWeather meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said Simon strengthened incredibly quickly. He noted that this is what makes such storms dangerous. Rapid intensification leaves little room for error. It turns a manageable event into a catastrophe before the last boards are nailed to the windows.
Some may argue the risk is lower because the storm could weaken. The National Hurricane Center stated Simon could weaken rapidly if its core moves fully onshore after landfall. This is a technicality of wind speed. It does not reduce the risk of water.
The rain is the real verdict. Simon could bring 10 to 20 inches of rain to southwestern Mexico. The states of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco could receive up to 30 inches of rain, CBS News reported. The National Hurricane Center warned that this rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides. This is especially true in areas of steep terrain.
The water does not negotiate. It follows the slope of the land. In Jalisco, that land is steep. Mudslides do not wait for a Civil Protection official to issue a closing order.
A cycle of disaster
This is not an isolated event. It is a pattern. The region is trapped in a cycle of recurring disaster and displacement. This is the same mechanism that drove Hurricane Lidia in 2023. Lidia was also a rapidly intensifying Category 4 storm that hit the state of Jalisco.
Elena Gulmas remembers that destruction. She said she lost everything. Now she says life comes first. She is one of around 100 people the Mexico Navy evacuated from west coast settlements, Free Malaysia Today reported.
The historical record shows that the coast is vulnerable to these specific peaks of intensity. In 2002, Hurricane Kenna struck west-central Mexico as a Category 4 storm. It generated massive storm surges that devastated beachfront areas in Puerto Vallarta. Kenna killed at least four people.
Paulina Perez owns a furniture boutique. She remembers the water height during Kenna. She placed a sign in her shop that asked Simon to be brief and peaceful. The fear of rising water is a rational response to the long record.
Will the water win?
The government of Jalisco state declared a red alert for several municipalities. It suspended classes in 22 coastal municipalities. These are the facts a citizen must carry into a shelter.
The storm is not a surprise. NOAA provided satellite imagery of the storm on Saturday, Click2Houston reported. The data is clear. The wind is high and the moisture is heavy.
The mechanism of the disaster is simple. Warm ocean temperatures from El Nino are weakening wind shear in the Pacific. This allows storms like Simon to gain strength quickly. When that strength hits steep coastal mountains, the result is mud and flood.
The residents who stay in their shops until the last moment are betting against the physics of the storm. They are betting that the rainfall will spare them. They are betting that the mudslides will avoid their streets.
The evidence suggests the water will win. The combination of wind and torrential rain creates a situation where recovery is challenging. Damaged infrastructure and power outages will isolate communities.
Hurricane Simon will likely trigger catastrophic flash floods and mudslides across the three states. These floods will isolate mountain communities for days. The storm surge will breach sea defenses in Puerto Vallarta and flood beachfront businesses. This is the predictable result of a major storm hitting an area already scarred by Lidia and Kenna. The facts prove that the only safe place is far from the coast and away from the slopes.
Sources
- CBS News: Hurricane Simon strengthens into Category 4 storm as it takes aim at Mexico's Pacific coast
- Click2Houston: A ferocious Hurricane Simon nears Mexico with 155 mph winds and flooding fears
- Yale Climate Connections: Two more landfalls expected this weekend, both on Mexico’s Pacific coast
- CBC News: Category 4 Hurricane Simon barrels toward Mexico
- Free Malaysia Today: Hurricane Simon strengthens as it nears western Mexico