Democrats waste cash in Texas while losing Maine and Michigan

By Dana Whitfield · Reporting from Washington ·

National Democratic committees are squandering scarce campaign cash on speculative red-state races while failing to defend vulnerable battlegrounds in Michigan and Maine.

The arithmetic of delusion in party headquarters

Every dollar spent chasing a deep-red pipe dream is stolen from a burning firewall. According to Politico, national Democratic committees admit they lack the cash to defend core battlegrounds and invest in deep-red states. Yet party strategists dither. They are seduced by outlier polls in places where no Democrat has won in decades. MS NOW reports that Republicans hold the Senate majority. Democrats must hold every current seat and flip Republican seats to take back the chamber. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Yet main campaign groups pour money there. This is not strategy. It is magical thinking.

The parallel to the United States presidential election, 1932 is instructive only in reverse. Against the backdrop of the Great Depression, the Republican ticket was defeated in a landslide by Franklin D. Roosevelt. This marked the end of the Fourth Party System and the beginning of the New Deal coalition. The shared mechanism is clear. Economic hardship and perceived failure of the incumbent's policies drive voters in red states to flip. CNN polls in Iowa and Ohio show likely voters believe Donald Trump’s policies increased the cost of living. About 7 in 10 say gas prices have been at least a moderate hardship. But voter dissatisfaction does not automatically translate into a geographic map that makes sense. Chasing a vanity expansion into Kansas is organizational malpractice. A Republican nominee has not lost a Senate race there since 1932.

The firewall is fraying where it matters most

The starkest proof of this misallocation is happening in the actual battlegrounds. There, Democrats are struggling to secure steady leads. In Michigan, a New York Times poll shows progressive nominee Abdul El-Sayed leading among likely voters. But a Fox News survey shows the race is within the margin of error. Worse yet, 50 percent of likely voters in Michigan say El-Sayed is the more extreme candidate. A CNN review notes he has the lowest crossover support from Republicans of any Democratic nominee. He polls in the low single digits. Without crossover votes in a northern industrial battleground, your fancy internal polling in Texas is just expensive wallpaper.

The situation in Maine is even more illustrative of a party failing its own baseline tests. A New York Times poll shows GOP Senator Susan Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson. Jackson’s image among likely voters is underwater. A CBS News-YouGov poll shows that 53 percent of Democrats and independents in Maine preferred someone else entirely. Voters are telling pollsters they want economic relief. Yet national committees are distracted by long-shot dispatches from Mississippi and South Carolina. As Scott Colom noted about Mississippi, it is an inexpensive state to advertise in. But cheap advertising cannot buy you a demographic reality that simply does not exist.

The boring fix is the only way out

The strongest case for expanding the map rests on the argument that national headwinds make every state fluid. Proponents point to New York Times and Marist polling showing Democrats leading in Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. If the national environment is that toxic, the argument goes, why set arbitrary limits on ambition? But structural candidate liabilities and cash constraints do not vanish because of a single poll. When 52 percent of Michigan voters worry a candidate is too liberal, enthusiasm cannot outrun organizational deficit.

Remember the 2006 United States Senate elections, when a wave election allowed Democrats to capture seats in Republican strongholds. Even in that wave, success required disciplined targeting of vulnerable incumbents rather than spreading resources thin. In New Hampshire, Democratic Representative Chris Pappas leads in most quality polling. Yet voters split tickets enough to give GOP Governor Kelly Ayotte a comfortable lead. Some residents confuse candidate John E. Sununu with his brother, former GOP Governor Chris Sununu. Voters are complex, localized, and stubbornly resistant to national party blueprints.

National Democratic committees must immediately pull all funding from speculative reaches like Kansas, Mississippi, and Texas. They must redirect every remaining dollar to shore up vulnerable margins in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire.

Sources

  1. CNN: The states that aren’t cooperating with Democrats’ Senate majority hopes
  2. MS NOW: The red state route to a Senate Democratic majority
  3. YouGov: New polls in seven states show tight races for Senate and governor in each, including leads for Talarico, Brown, and Acton
  4. Politico: Democrats spy a red-state opening. There may not be enough cash for it.