California faces an extraordinary winter as El Niño strengthens

By Daniel Okafor · Reporting from New York · October 9, 2026

Climate models project extraordinary rainfall across California as El Niño strengthens, leaving emergency response agencies unready for compound disasters unless governments immediately fund structural reinforcements.

The warning lights are flashing

The numbers leave no room for doubt. Climate models from Europe and the United States agree that California faces an extraordinary winter. Reporting in the Sacramento Bee and SFGATE shows that the European Seasonal Forecast System 5 and the National Multimodel Ensemble project a wetter season than previously estimated. Most of the populated areas in the state are primed for winter rainfall of at least 150% of normal. Some coastal areas may receive double their winter average rainfall. The strongest rainfall signal extends from Sacramento and the Bay Area south to San Diego. Above-average rainfall signals extend statewide and into Nevada and southern Oregon.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center published an outlook ranking El Niño as very strong, with an 83% chance it will become historic. Temperatures in a designated area of the tropical Pacific reached 2.1 degrees Celsius above normal. The winter of 1982 to 1983 peaked as the strongest on record. Josh Willis, a senior research scientist for NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, called it El Niño macho, SFGATE reported.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources and the University of California's California Institute for Water Resources, wrote on X that he had never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. Swain said that he is officially concerned. With a forecast like this, he said that it is hard to imagine ever having a clearer advanced warning of a potentially difficult winter ahead for California. Swain said that it is fair to say that the warning lights are flashing in California and beyond.

The deluge in the numbers

The predictive models reveal staggering totals for specific cities. Reporting in the Sacramento Bee and San Francisco Chronicle details that Los Angeles typically receives 10 inches of rain, but faces predictions of 20 inches. North coast mountains are predicted to have widespread winter totals over 30 inches.

The European model generates forecasts based on different conditions. For San Francisco from December through March, only one model run is drier than normal. Swain's statewide analysis found only one model run drier than average for California.

This heavy water will fall in bursts as atmospheric rivers and showers produce moisture. January is the strongest month for rain and snow statewide. The European model forecasts nearly every corner of California will see its heaviest rain in January. Snow is predicted to be lower in the foothills but significantly higher at elevation. The Klamath Mountains and the Sierra expect more. Snowfall will be amplified along mountain peaks and ridges, including in Southern California.

This extreme weather mirrors the 1982-1983 El Niño. That event was one of the strongest El Niño events since records were kept. Extreme sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific drive record-breaking precipitation and coastal erosion in California. The coming storms will test every layer of the state's defenses.

Hazards stacking on hazards

The threat is not water alone. State climatologist Michael Anderson said in The Guardian that El Niño will add an additional foot of sea level rise in California. The US National Weather Service issued September coastal flood advisories for the San Francisco Bay Area for the first time. Governor Gavin Newsom issued a state of emergency on September 21.

Higher risks of debris flows exist in Big Sur and neighborhoods hit by the 2025 Los Angeles firestorm. Officials said watersheds and hillsides typically take five years to heal enough to withstand strong storms. Kevin McGowan, Los Angeles' office of emergency management director, said high heat and fire risks are likely to linger into November. McGowan said that people should continue to prepare not just for one hazard, but all hazards.

Cities are scrambling. Long Beach reinforced its seawall with large sandbags. Orange County is pushing roughly 690,000 cubic yards of sand along the coastline. Workers in San Diego are visiting small businesses in flood zones. Mark Pestrella, Los Angeles County public works director, said flood control systems are designed to withstand a 100-year event, which has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year.

Yet the agencies tasked with rescue face severe constraints. The Trump administration issued cuts in staff and resources for disaster response agencies, affecting the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Monica Medina, former principal deputy administrator of NOAA, said agencies were already stretched because of an increase in extreme weather events. Medina warned of a loss of life and an inability to be protected, saying that if this is a real test, the country is going to flunk.

The federal government and local planners must stop treating compound weather extremes as statistical anomalies. They must immediately fund the structural reinforcements required to save lives before the atmospheric rivers hit saturated soils.

California faces an extraordinary winter as El Niño strengthens

The warning lights are flashing

The deluge in the numbers

Hazards stacking on hazards

Sources