Trump fails deterrence by offering up Los Angeles and San Diego

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · October 6, 2026

By suggesting that Iran could target Los Angeles and San Diego, Donald Trump has undermined American deterrence and treated his own citizens as expendable.

President Donald Trump has confused the role of a campaign surrogate with that of a commander-in-chief. On October 5, 2026, he spoke at a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska. The Los Angeles Times and The Daily Beast reported his remarks. He suggested that letting Iran "take out" Los Angeles and San Diego is a "very small price to pay" for security. This is not a joke. It is a strategic failure. By calling American cities expendable, the president signals that he views his own citizens as collateral damage.

The illusion of a small price

In the cold logic of a diplomatic cable, we begin with interests. Washington wants to deter aggression and protect its territory. It fears direct threats to its homeland. Tehran wants to maintain regional influence. It fears the economic impact of ongoing sanctions and direct military conflict.

Next, we look at capabilities. What can each capital actually do? Washington can project overwhelming force. Tehran has a self-imposed ballistic missile range limit of 1,240 miles, according to the Associated Press. Diego Garcia sits outside that range. Yet U.S. officials allege Iran's space program could enable intercontinental ballistic missiles.

Then come the statements. The president told the crowd in Nebraska that "they can take out a city." He named Los Angeles and San Diego. He claimed this is a "small price to pay" for keeping the country safe. We must treat this escalation as a miscalculation until the evidence shows clear intent.

This rhetoric echoes the Trump-Iran tensions 2017. In that period, unpredictable language was used to signal strength. But there is a difference between threatening an adversary and offering up your own cities. The former is a bluff. The latter is an invitation.

We must price this move five years out. The cost is a permanent degradation of American credibility. If a president suggests his own cities are expendable, allies and enemies will conclude that the American word is meaningless.

The domestic cost of campaign theater

The reaction from California was immediate. Governor Gavin Newsom called the president "deranged and dangerous." He noted that this follows the deployment of the National Guard and Marines to occupy California. San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria stated his city is not "collateral damage." Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass argued the president's role is to protect the country, not encourage attacks on it.

The human cost of this war is already real. The Daily Beast reports that at least 19 service members have been killed. The Pentagon’s Defense Casualty Analysis System shows a rising number of war wounded. Pvt. Isabella Gonzales was one of those killed at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.

To suggest that 10+ million residents in two major cities are a "punchline" betrays the military's sacrifice. The president attempted to pivot to economics, claiming gas prices would come down "very sharply."

This willingness to accept domestic disruption for a political goal mirrors the 2019 United States federal government shutdown. In both cases, the president viewed significant national instability as a "small price to pay" for a personal objective.

A pattern of calculated instability

The strongest case for the president is that this is "Maximum Pressure" in its purest form. Supporters argue that appearing irrational forces Iran to negotiate out of fear. They would call this a high-stakes gamble to end the war.

That argument fails. Deterrence is not based on madness. It relies on predictable resolve. A leader who offers up his own cities does not look strong. He looks unstable.

The January 6 Capitol riot shares the same mechanism. It showed a willingness to sacrifice domestic stability for political survival. In both cases, the president used inflammatory language. He signaled that civilian safety is secondary to his political needs.

The January 6 United States Capitol attack shows a similar pattern. Provocative rhetoric was used to incite action against domestic targets. The president now applies that same logic to foreign adversaries.

The institutional framework of this conflict is codified. An executive order signed in February 2026 designates Tehran as an extraordinary threat. This continues a national emergency dating back to 1995. These documents establish a long posture of national security. The president's rally remarks do not support this posture; they undermine it.

The White House will likely treat these remarks as campaign theater. They will rely on the existing emergency declarations to maintain a facade of official policy. But the damage is done. Tehran's state media now has a gift: a U.S. president who admits his own cities are expendable.

The president has traded the safety of 10+ million Americans for a cheer from a crowd in Nebraska. He has signaled that the American people are not the priority, but the props. A commander-in-chief who treats his own territory as a bargaining chip is a liability to the state.

Trump fails deterrence by offering up Los Angeles and San Diego

The illusion of a small price

The domestic cost of campaign theater

A pattern of calculated instability

Sources