Trump's refusal to strike Houthis risks a Saudi failure
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
President Trump is providing intelligence but withholding airstrikes as Saudi Arabia launches a massive offensive to retake Bab al-Mandeb, a gamble that risks regional instability.
The United States is currently practicing a form of strategic detachment that borders on negligence. By refusing to provide direct kinetic support for Saudi Arabia’s upcoming offensive to retake the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, President Trump is betting that intelligence data can replace actual firepower. It is a mistake. The Houthis have already proven they can seize vital arteries of global trade. Leaving the heavy lifting to a fractured coalition of Yemeni proxies is not "restraint." It is a recipe for a high-profile failure that will eventually force a more costly American intervention.
The geography of a chokehold
In the world of cables, interests always precede statements. The interest here is the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. This waterway connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is the southern gateway for shipping between Asia and the Mediterranean. For Riyadh, it is a matter of national survival. Houthi fighters captured areas of the strait in Taiz on September 09, 2026. This move effectively throttles Saudi oil exports.
According to ynetnews.com, Riyadh has concluded that peace negotiations are not viable while the Houthis control this territory. The Saudis are now planning a major counteroffensive. The goal is to push the Houthis away from the coast. This is a desperate move to restore the status quo before the chokehold becomes permanent.
The U.S. interest is ostensibly the same: keeping the seas open. Yet the response from Washington is tepid. Axios reports that the U.S. has twice rebuffed Saudi requests for airstrikes. A U.S. official stated the U.S. "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
Capabilities and the Mecca Pact
Riyadh is not fighting alone, but its coalition is a patchwork. The operation will utilize ground forces loyal to the internationally recognized government in Yemen. Ynetnews.com reports that up to 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized. These forces are supported by Saudi air cover and a new trilateral arrangement.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey are aligned under the "Mecca Pact." This agreement provides military and logistical support. Pakistan has deployed troops and supplied military equipment, while maintaining strict limits on direct combat.
The U.S. role is currently that of a high-end concierge. The military is providing intelligence and targeting data. In the last two weeks, the U.S. provided the Saudis with more than 200 Houthi targets. Critical Threats notes that Washington also continues to supply defensive missile batteries such as the Patriot.
This approach allows the White House to claim support while avoiding the political cost of casualties. However, targeting data does not hold ground.
The pattern of miscalculation
The White House will argue that this restraint is a calculated move. U.S. Central Command views direct strikes as a distraction from the primary focus on Iran. By withholding kinetic action, the administration avoids an open-ended campaign in a Yemeni wasteland.
This argument fails because it treats the Houthis as a local nuisance rather than an Iranian instrument. The Houthis are the primary lever Tehran uses to pressure the Gulf. To ignore the seizure of Bab al-Mandeb is to tell Iran that the U.S. will not defend its most critical maritime interests.
This is Operation Decisive Storm all over again. The mechanism is identical. Saudi Arabia attempts to resolve a Houthi insurgency through a decisive military offensive. The goal is to restore a friendly government and secure strategic territory. In 2015, the intervention followed the collapse of UN efforts to facilitate a power sharing arrangement. This led to escalating conflict between government forces and Houthi rebels.
The U.S. is operating under a legal architecture that demands action. President Trump signed an Executive Order on January 22, 2025. This initiated the process to designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. He also extended the national emergency regarding Yemen. The legal groundwork for a strike is already laid. The hesitation is purely political.
But the 2026 landscape is more volatile. If the counteroffensive involving up to 100,000 Yemeni troops stalls, the U.S. will not be "distracted" from Iran. It will be dragged into a rescue operation.
The U.S. is trading immediate convenience for a long-term liability. If the Saudi-led offensive fails to clear the coast, the Bab al-Mandeb will remain a Houthi toll booth. The White House is betting that the Mecca Pact can substitute for American air power. It is a gamble that ignores the historical record of Yemeni warfare. Hesitation is not a strategy. It is a miscalculation of Houthi resolve and Saudi capability.