Donald Trump exits Iraq, handing an easy triumph to Tehran

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · September 30, 2026

As American forces complete their exit from Iraq, Baghdad is left vulnerable to Iranian proxies and the Islamic State, showing how hasty departures surrender strategic ground.

The interest is sovereignty, the capability is nil

There is an old rule in foreign capitals that the side with the artillery usually gets to define the morning after. On September 30, 2026, the United States completed its withdrawal from Iraq. It abandoned bases built during a war that cost 4,500 American lives. Reporting from Rappler and France 24 notes the pullout was agreed upon in 2024 under then-president Joe Biden. Donald Trump's administration carried it out. The departure ends the Operation Inherent Resolve mission against the Islamic State, as noted by dw.com. Washington's interests lie elsewhere. Tehran's interests are absolute. Baghdad's interests are whatever local militias permit. Nations have interests, not friendships. The interest of the departing power is simply to erase the ledger.

The capabilities tell the rest of the story before a single statement is read. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi celebrated the exit, declaring that October 1 will mark a new day for Iraq. According to dw.com, he proclaimed the country free of foreign military presence and possessing full sovereignty. Yet sovereignty without a radar screen is merely an invitation to the nearest neighbor with a drone assembly line. As Al Jazeera reports, the US military removed Patriot and C-RAM defensive systems from Erbil during the withdrawal. Retired Iraqi Army General Mohammed al-Jubouri warned of a grave scenario in reports by Rappler and France 24. He cautioned that the Islamic State could obtain armed or improvised explosive drones while Iraq lacks air defenses to counter them. The parallel to the United States withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 is exact. A premature military exit creates a security void that allows previously suppressed insurgent groups to reorganize and seize territory.

The armed groups keep their weapons and the calendar moves

The strongest opposing case for the withdrawal rests on the theory of domestic political normalisation. Proponents argue that removing foreign boots strips Iran-backed non-state actors of their primary rhetorical justification for violence. Douglas Silliman, former US ambassador to Iraq, stated in Al Jazeera that the withdrawal is a strategy to politically weaken influential militias. He noted it builds a case to Iraqis that these forces no longer have a political reason to keep those weapons. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi accordingly extended the disarmament deadline for armed groups to June 30, 2027, as reported by dw.com. The plan offers a 90-day period where armed groups refrain from attacks in exchange for assurances that US forces will not target them, followed by a gradual handover of weapons.

This argument mistakes a calendar for a capability. The hardest-line armed groups — Kata'ib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada — give no indication that they will surrender their weapons. They show no sign of integrating into Iraq's armed forces. Renad Mansour of Chatham House observed that many political movements are associated with armed organisations. This connection makes a security sector revolution hard to imagine. When Kata'ib Hezbollah rejects disarmament outright, Baghdad extends the deadline. A sovereign state that negotiates the surrender of its monopoly on violence with an irregular brigade is not governing. It is paying protection money in installments.

The security vacuum fills itself from the east

The statements from Tehran are remarkably candid for a capital waging an active war. Iran views the withdrawal as a triumph for its axis of resistance. According to reporting by Rappler and France 24, Tehran's ultimate aim is forcing American forces to leave the entire Middle East. The United States and Israel are currently at war with Iran, as dw.com notes. The departure of the remaining 2,500 troops leaves the field open. Ahmed Younis, a Baghdad-based political analyst cited by Rappler, warned that Iran's proxies will feel increasingly empowered without a Western military presence. They may expand their role in shaping state policies and consolidating power within key institutions.

In the north, the vulnerability is acute. Following the withdrawal of US forces and removal of air defense systems from Erbil, Kurdish Prime Minister Masrour Barzani called the threat real. As reported by Al Jazeera, he stated they are vulnerable and under attack, calling it shameful to be left without appropriate defensive systems. According to dw.com, Iranian-launched Hadid-110 stealth drones have already targeted Masrour Barzani's office and the residence of the director of Parastin in Pirmam. Like the Withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, the departure demonstrates a grim truth. When a superpower clears the board, the most ruthless local actors collect the pieces.

The withdrawal from Iraq is not an end to a war. It is a surrender of the ground floor to the pyromaniacs next door. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi will find that his June 2027 disarmament deadline dissolves into irrelevance. It collapses the moment the first Iranian drone clears the ridge above Erbil without meeting an interceptor. Washington has traded a minor stabilizing footprint for the theater of a clean break. It leaves a fragile state to bargain with men who answer to Tehran. Credibility is spent in crises and earned in boring years. Today the vault is empty.

Donald Trump exits Iraq, handing an easy triumph to Tehran

The interest is sovereignty, the capability is nil

The armed groups keep their weapons and the calendar moves

The security vacuum fills itself from the east

Sources