Trump trades American leverage for Xi Jinping's flattery
By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington ·
By treating Xi Jinping's state visit as a triumph of personal chemistry, Donald Trump surrenders strategic leverage and leaves Washington unprepared for a more confident rival.
Donald Trump is mistaking a performance for a partnership. By treating Xi Jinping's visit as a triumph of personal chemistry, the president surrenders American leverage. He believes he is forging a "truly great friendship" based on "mutual respect." In reality, he allows Beijing to manage its most dangerous rival through simple flattery.
The Tarmac Theater
To understand this summit, one must look first at the interests of each capital. Beijing’s primary interest is to secure the space for its rise while avoiding a premature military collision. Xi Jinping seeks to achieve the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" without triggering the "Thucydides trap." Washington’s stated interest is to "make America great again" by balancing a heavily tilted trading relationship.
The optics of the visit were designed to signal deference. According to The Atlantic, Trump greeted Xi Jinping on the tarmac at Andrews air force base. This deviated from the tradition of presidents waiting at the White House. In high-level diplomacy, such gestures are markers of status.
Xi Jinping is a student of the long game. During his first state visit to the United States in 2015, he signaled a "new model of major-power relations." He is doing the same now, but with a more compliant audience. He noted that the visit arrives at the 250th anniversary of the American founding. He uses the language of a campaign rally to disarm his host. While Trump swoons over "tremendous strides," he ignores the structural reality. Nations have interests, not friendships.
The Tariff Illusion
The second element of the cable is capability: what each capital can actually do to enforce its will. Washington's primary economic weapon is the tariff. The Times of India reports on the historical tariff peaks of the trade war. Following a meeting in South Korea, the two capitals suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs.
The Guardian reports that a truce to keep tariffs lower has been extended from November until February. This extension is a tactical pause. It is formalized in the Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and Executive Order 14358. Under this deal, China committed to eliminate coercive export controls on rare earth elements. In exchange, the US maintains the suspension of heightened tariffs.
But Beijing's economic capability remains formidable. Despite the trade war, Chinese imports continue to surge into the United States. China is on course to run a $1tn trade deficit for the second consecutive year. This cycle of volatility mirrors the Trade War of 2018-2019. Then, as now, a temporary halt dissolved because the structural disagreements were irreconcilable.
The Strategic Vacuum
Only after interests and capabilities are established can we evaluate the statements. Xi Jinping urges the two nations to "coexist in peace" and calls for "candid, in-depth and continued dialog." Trump calls AI "super intelligence" in speeches, but he is not using that intelligence to secure the Pacific. The Atlantic notes that Trump is not expected to press Xi on Taiwan’s defense. This is a strategic vacuum.
This approach is a failed version of the Visit of Richard Nixon to China. Nixon used a strategic pivot toward a rival power to manage systemic competition and avoid direct conflict. But Nixon did so to gain leverage over the Soviet Union. Trump is pivoting toward Xi without a secondary objective. He is trading the security of Taiwan for a "personal rapport."
The ablest advocate for this summit would argue that avoiding a military collision is the only goal that matters. They would say that "crisis communication and prevention" are more important than chip bans. This is a fallacy. Deterrence is not built on "candid, in-depth and continued dialog." It is built on the capability to make the cost of aggression unbearable. By ignoring AI development and the defense of Taiwan, the US does not avoid the Thucydides trap. It is simply walking into it.
The proposed exchange of 100,000 young Americans to China is a distraction. It is a gesture of "soft power" that will likely collapse under security screening bottlenecks. It repeats the US-China Comprehensive Dialogue of 2021. There, both capitals sought to avoid unintentional escalation despite deep structural tensions over Taiwan and AI.
The cost of this summit will be felt in five years. By prioritizing the "friendship" of a strongman, the United States is spending its credibility. The Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement will likely fail by the G20 summit in Miami. When the tariff truce expires in February, the US will have fewer chips to play. It will face a rival grown more confident in American predictability.
Sources
- The Guardian: At Trump meeting, Xi Jinping lays out terms to avoid US-China military conflict
- The Atlantic: The Deferential President
- Times of India: ‘US and China should coexist in peace’: Xi meets Trump at White House
- BBC: White House restores access to media outlets banned by Trump after judge's order