Trump's Houthi flip-flop hands the Red Sea to Iran's proxies

By Tom Beckwith · Reporting from Washington · September 21, 2026

By canceling airstrikes at the last minute, Donald Trump has signaled American instability to Riyadh and emboldened Houthi advances toward the Bab al-Mandab strait.

Donald Trump has mistaken a proxy's tactical silence for a strategic partnership. By calling off planned airstrikes against the Houthis while bombs were literally being loaded onto aircraft, the president has traded American credibility for a phantom peace. This is not the "art of the deal." It is a surrender of deterrence that leaves our primary regional ally exposed and our interests in the Red Sea adrift. The Houthis are not "allowing ships to pass" out of goodwill. They are seizing the heights of Yemen to ensure that when they finally close the gate, the world has no choice but to pay their price.

The high cost of hesitation

The sequence of events is a textbook study in strategic incoherence. According to The Jerusalem Post, Trump instructed the Pentagon to prepare strikes after a plea from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He reversed the decision. The New York Times reported that the president "flip-flopped wildly." In the world of diplomacy, a flip-flop is not a pivot; it is a signal of weakness.

The Houthis responded to this vacuum with immediate aggression. Free Malaysia Today reports that the movement seized control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and the port city of Mocha on September 11. They are now pushing into the highlands of Lahij and Taiz provinces. Their goal is simple: secure the rear of their forces around the Bab al-Mandab strait. This is the same mechanism seen in the Lebanon War, where a superpower's struggle to manage a proxy war involving non-state actors and regional rivals leads to a permanent loss of control. The Houthis know that Washington is terrified of a quagmire. They are counting on it.

The hallucination of a deal

The administration's defense is a fantasy. Trump claimed the situation would "work out very well." This is a dangerous delusion. The Houthis are an Iranian proxy. Their "agreement" lasts only as long as it serves Tehran's broader war with the United States.

We have seen this movie before. In early 2025, the US conducted strikes. The Jerusalem Post notes that this campaign cost $1 billion in munitions. Trump ended that campaign in less than two months after a Houthi promise to stop firing on US ships. He is now relying on that same fragile logic while the Houthis fire missiles at Riyadh.

By treating the Houthis as a sovereign partner rather than a tool of the IRGC, Trump is ignoring the reality of the "Axis of Resistance." Now, the disruption is coming from within the White House.

A leaking security umbrella

Riyadh is watching its protector vanish. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman implored Trump to blunt the Houthi advance. Instead, he received a last-minute cancellation. The Houthis claimed that they fired on Riyadh, with smoke visible near the airport. Saudi Arabia launched hundreds of strikes in the Kahboub mountains, but the Houthis claim these had little impact.

The US maintains a defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, but agreements are only as strong as the will to enforce them. In May, Saudi Arabia denied the US use of its airspace and bases to escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. That was a warning. This latest reversal is a confirmation. When a client state realizes the security umbrella is made of paper, it starts looking for a new provider.

The human cost is already mounting. The Guardian reports that at least 125,000 people have been displaced in Yemen since the start of September. Taiz city has taken in up to 86,000 displaced persons. These numbers are the debris of a failed strategy. President Rashad al-Alimi requested military support, and Trump offered no direct pledge.

The US is currently locked in a war with Iran. The IRGC has warned that it will introduce "new weapons with new capabilities" if the US attacks. Trump fears this escalation, but he is failing to see that the Houthis are already escalating on his behalf. By refusing to support Riyadh, he is not avoiding a war; he is simply choosing which ally to betray.

The Houthis will consolidate their hold on the Bab al-Mandab, rendering the government in Aden untenable. Riyadh will be forced into a unilateral accommodation with Sana'a, and the US will find itself locked out of the Red Sea's most critical chokepoint. This is the inevitable result of a foreign policy based on the whims of a single man rather than the interests of a state. Washington has spent its credibility in a series of last-minute reversals, and in five years, we will pay for this "deal" in lost access, broken alliances, and a Red Sea that belongs to Tehran.

Trump's Houthi flip-flop hands the Red Sea to Iran's proxies

The high cost of hesitation

The hallucination of a deal

A leaking security umbrella

Sources