Tropical Storm Fay confirms the quietest Atlantic season

By Daniel Okafor · Reporting from New York · September 20, 2026

Tropical Storm Fay formed in the Atlantic but will likely dissipate, confirming that a Super El Niño has suppressed the season's usual activity.

Tropical Storm Fay is a footnote. It formed in the northern Atlantic on September 20, 2026, but it carries no real threat. The storm is not the story. The story is the silence of the Atlantic basin. A brewing Super El Niño has stifled the season, leaving the ocean unusually still. This storm is a brief flicker in a year defined by absence.

A storm that wanders

Fay began as Tropical Depression Six on Saturday morning. It grew into a tropical storm by Sunday. ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos reported that Fay sat about 450 miles southwest of the Azores. The Azores are an autonomous region of Portugal.

The system lacks a clear purpose. The National Hurricane Center said Fay moves at 3 mph. It is forecast to meander through the weekend. foxweather.com said that Fay has winds of 60 mph.

The storm will not reach land. ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos reported that maximum sustained winds were 45 mph at 5 a.m. EDT. The National Hurricane Center said the system could strengthen briefly but is expected to dissipate. It is a cycle of growth and failure.

Why is the Atlantic quiet?

The Atlantic is quiet because the Pacific is loud. This is the work of the Super El Niño. This climate pattern suppresses storm development in the Atlantic while it fuels activity in the Pacific.

This is the same mechanism that drove the 1997-1998 El Niño. That event was one of the most powerful in recorded history. It caused global economic losses of US$5.7 trillion. It killed 16% of the world's reef systems.

The current pattern repeats that history. Super El Niño conditions have pushed the action west. Hurricanes have already impacted Hawaii and the West Coast. The Atlantic basin has set a record for the latest first hurricane of the season. The ocean is not empty, but the storms are in the wrong place.

The record of the void

The current season is the quietest start on record. This stillness stands in sharp contrast to the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. That year saw 28 tropical and subtropical storms. It produced a record 15 hurricanes.

Meteorologists track these shifts with a known playbook. A system evolves through classifications as it moves. Hurricane Sandy followed this path in 2012. It became the largest Atlantic hurricane on record by diameter. It killed 254 people.

Other years show how fast a system can turn. Hurricane Maria strengthened rapidly in 2017. It became the deadliest hurricane to strike the island of Puerto Rico. It caused over 3,000 deaths.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season showed that climate patterns dictate the count. That year was near-average in storm frequency. Yet it became the fourth-costliest season on record. The number of storms does not always equal the cost of the damage.

This year, the number is low. The Atlantic is missing the heat and the wind shear needed to sustain a monster. Fay is the result of a system trying to form in a hostile environment. ABC7 WWSB reported that Tropical Depression Six wind speeds were 35 mph before it reached storm status.

Hostile winds will end the storm

Fay will not survive the week. It is moving into a zone of unfavorable thermal and dynamic conditions. The National Hurricane Center will likely issue a final advisory as the storm becomes a remnant low.

The Azores may see elevated surf. They will not see a catastrophe. The storm is too small and its core pressure is too weak to cause structural damage. It follows a path similar to Tropical Storm Alberto in 2006. That storm passed the islands without causing infrastructure damage.

The Super El Niño creates a ceiling for Atlantic storms. Hostile upper-level winds will tear Fay's circulation apart. Dry air will strip the system of its convection. The National Hurricane Center forecasts that Fay will move southwest across the Atlantic Ocean before it vanishes.

The facts show a season of imbalance. The Atlantic is a ghost town while the Pacific burns. Fay is not a warning of things to come. It is a confirmation that the Atlantic has already lost its momentum for the year.

Tropical Storm Fay confirms the quietest Atlantic season

A storm that wanders

Why is the Atlantic quiet?

The record of the void

Hostile winds will end the storm

Sources