National Hurricane Center tracks a record-quiet Atlantic
By Daniel Okafor · Reporting from New York ·
Tropical Depression Six formed near the Azores, but its weak winds confirm that a Super El Niño has rendered the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season historically inactive.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is a ghost. Those who look at the formation of Tropical Depression Six as a sign of awakening are wrong. This system is not a spark. It is a flicker in a basin suppressed by a "Super" El Niño. The facts show a season that has failed to produce a single hurricane.
A system that cannot find its way
Tropical Depression Six formed on Sept. 19, 2026. It developed southwest of the Azores from Invest 99L. USA Today reported the system moved north at 2 mph.
The system lacks the strength to threaten land. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the depression will meander through the weekend. AccuWeather Meteorologist Alexander Duffus said the depression may strengthen into a tropical storm and move northeastward before heading away from the Azores.
If the winds reach 39 mph, the NHC will name the storm Fay. This would make it the sixth named storm of the year. The average date for a sixth named storm is Aug. 29. The system is late and weak.
The physics of silence
The Atlantic is not just quiet; it is dormant. FOX Weather reported that "Super" El Niño conditions suppressed Atlantic storm development. This same phenomenon fueled tropical activity in the Pacific. While the Atlantic slept, hurricanes in the Pacific impacted Hawaii and the West Coast.
The numbers prove the void. Yale Climate Connections reported that Atlantic accumulated cyclone energy is 4.4, which is 94% below normal. The Atlantic basin set a record for the latest first hurricane of the season. Philip Klotzbach said the season continues to be remarkably quiet, generating the least Accumulated Cyclone Energy since 1950.
The strongest systems this year, Bertha and Edward, only reached 60 mph.
The 1907 precedent
The current season follows the pattern of the 1907 Atlantic hurricane season. Both share the same mechanism: an inactive Atlantic season produces multiple tropical storms but fails to generate a single hurricane. In 1907, only five tropical storms formed. None reached hurricane strength.
The season is the longest on record to go without a hurricane so far. This is the latest in the year since 1966 that the Atlantic has remained without a hurricane. Only 1907 and 1914 were previously recorded with zero hurricanes.
WPBF reported that the NHC announced the formation of Tropical Depression Six late Saturday morning. The NHC noted that the bulk of the convection is on the northern side of the cyclone. This implies wind shear is still affecting it. The system is moving slowly, but it has started to show more motion toward the north-northwest.
The El Niño-driven suppression of the Atlantic basin will hold. Tropical Depression Six will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Fay before wind shear tears the system apart over the central Atlantic. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories every six hours until the system degrades into an open wave. The total number of named storms will remain well below average. The basin is not waking up; it is staying asleep.
Sources
- FOX Weather: Tropical Depression Six forms in the Atlantic, expected to strengthen to Tropical Storm Fay by Sunday
- USA Today: Hurricane center eyes depression that could become Tropical Storm Fay
- Yale Climate Connections: Atlantic remains hurricane-free as Tropical Depression Six forms near the Azores
- WPBF: Tropical depression forms in Atlantic