Trump's tariffs are a shakedown of the EU and Canada

By Aoife Gallagher · Reporting from Dublin · September 17, 2026

The Atlantic has always been a highway for ideas and trade, but lately, it feels more like a tripwire.

The Atlantic has always been a highway for ideas and trade, but lately, it feels more like a tripwire. For those of us on the western edge of Europe, we know that the survival of a small or medium-sized nation depends entirely on the stability of the rules. When the rules are replaced by the whims of a single man in a high office, the periphery doesn't just suffer—it panics.

Last week in Strasbourg, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attempted to build a new kind of bridge. As reported by CBC News, she proposed that Canada become the first "associate member" of the European Union. It was a bold, if legally murky, invitation. Von der Leyen spoke of "one ocean, one set of values," pitching an "alliance for the future" that would integrate defense-industrial bases, create a tech alliance, and turn the Arctic into a flagship joint project. For Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who was the first non-European head of government to attend the State of the European Union address, the appeal is obvious. Carney isn't looking for a passport to Brussels—he has been clear that Ottawa seeks a "unique alliance" rather than full membership—but he is looking for a life raft.

The reaction from Washington was as predictable as it was poisonous. As CNBC reports, Donald Trump dismissed the proposal as "laughable" and warned that if he perceives this move as a "hostile act," he will impose "very serious tariffs" or simply stop trading with Europe on "many things." This isn't a diplomatic disagreement; it is a shakedown. Trump has already slapped a 50% tariff on Canadian goods and is preparing to ban Canadian dairy, alcohol, and auto imports later this month. To Trump, Canada is not a sovereign partner but a "terrible trade partner" that belongs within his orbit, or nowhere at all.

The Ghost of the Ottawa Conference

What we are witnessing is not a modern trade dispute, but the resurrection of Imperial Preference. In 1932, following the Ottawa Conference, the British Empire established a system of mutual tariff reductions designed to protect the "family" while freezing out the rest of the world. It was a mechanism of coercion, using preferential trade blocs to force colonies and dominions into an exclusive economic alignment with the center.

Donald Trump is attempting to implement a North American version of Imperial Preference. By threatening the EU with "very heavy tariffs" if they embrace Canada, he is signaling that the United States will not tolerate its neighbors diversifying their dependencies. He wants Canada to be an economic satellite, not a global player. The shared mechanism here is the use of the tariff not as a tool for fair competition, but as a weapon to punish any partner that dares to seek a hedge against the center's volatility.

We have seen this playbook before. The United States-China trade war of 2018 proved that Trump views tariffs as his primary diplomatic language, a way to force strategic partners to bend to his will. He is simply applying the same logic to his allies. When he enacted the Steel and Aluminum Tariffs in 2018, he proved that "national security" is often just a convenient label for economic bullying. Now, he is telling the EU that their friendship with Canada is a threat to his security. It is a transparent lie, but in the world of power, the lie is the leverage.

The Fallacy of the Washington Umbrella

The most capable advocate for Trump’s position would argue that the United States provides the indispensable security umbrella for the West. From this perspective, Canada and Europe enjoy the protection of the U.S. military and the stability of the dollar; in exchange, they should not engage in "hostile acts" that undermine North American economic cohesion. They would argue that an EU-Canada "associate membership" is a provocative geopolitical realignment that weakens the USMCA framework and creates a competing power bloc in the Western hemisphere.

This argument fails because the "umbrella" has become a weapon. You cannot claim to be the guarantor of a partner's security while simultaneously trying to bankrupt their dairy and auto industries. The USMCA negotiations of 2017-2019 showed that the U.S. is perfectly willing to tear up its own frameworks if it feels it can get a better deal through threats. When the center becomes the primary source of instability, the periphery is not being "hostile" by seeking other friends—it is being rational.

Mark Carney is an economist; he knows that vulnerability is a choice. By pursuing a "unique security and economic alliance" with Europe, Canada is simply diversifying its risk. The EU's proposal to include Canada in the SAFE instrument for defense procurement is a logical extension of a relationship that has already seen trade boost by 80% since 2016. To call this a "hostile act" is to redefine "hostility" as "independence."

Sovereignty is Found in the Hedge

The road ahead is fraught. We will likely see the EU attempt to soften the "associate member" label to something more vague—a "strategic partnership"—to avoid triggering a full-scale trade war. Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada's incoming ambassador to the EU, has already hinted that the term is merely "nomenclature." Meanwhile, domestic critics like Pierre Poilievre will scream about "EU taxes" and "EU laws" to frighten the Canadian public.

But the broader pattern is clear. Just as the Russian invasion of Ukraine forced a non-European state to seek institutional integration with the EU as a survival hedge, the volatility of the current U.S. administration is pushing Canada toward the same conclusion. The EU is not just offering Canada a trade deal; it is offering a sanctuary from the whims of a president who views the world as a series of zero-sum transactions.

If the EU and Canada blink now, they are not buying peace; they are buying a more expensive leash. The threat of "serious tariffs" is a gamble by Trump that the EU is too frightened to stand by a non-European partner. But the EU is a bloc built on the idea that small nations can survive if they adhere to shared rules. To abandon Canada now would be to admit that those rules are meaningless when Washington decides to ignore them.

The only way to end a shakedown is to stop paying. The EU must ratify the associate membership, and Canada must solidify its ties to the Joint Expeditionary Force and the European market. The cost may be a temporary spike in tariffs, but the price of submission is the permanent loss of sovereignty. In a world where the superpower is the primary source of chaos, the only security is found in the strength of the hedge.

Trump's tariffs are a shakedown of the EU and Canada

The Ghost of the Ottawa Conference

The Fallacy of the Washington Umbrella

Sovereignty is Found in the Hedge

Sources