Trump's 'total control' of Hormuz is a dangerous fantasy
By Alma Cordero · Reporting from El Paso ·
The Strait of Hormuz is not a line on a map for a Treasury Secretary to dismiss as a “worthless piece of water.” It is a place where people work, where sailors sweat, and where,…
# The Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is not a line on a map for a Treasury Secretary to dismiss as a “worthless piece of water.” It is a stretch of sea where sailors sweat and where, as Al Jazeera reports, a missile recently tore through a tanker's hull, sending plumes of black smoke into the sky and forcing crews into lifeboats. While Donald Trump spends his Sunday on the wind-swept greens of Doonbeg, Ireland, the people living on the edge of that water bear the risk of a strategy designed by Washington's war planners who believe they can blockade their way to peace.
The news from Oman follows a predictable pattern. Badr Albusaidi, the Omani Foreign Minister, said the summit in the humid heat of Salalah—meant to carve out a new maritime route—is postponed. He called it a matter of “interests of consensus.” In the language of diplomacy, the room is too full of ghosts and grudges to find a seat. According to Anadolu Agency, Bahrain has refused to sit with Iran until embassies and envoys return. This stalemate echoes the 2019 attacks where magnetic limpet mines were clamped to steel hulls in the dead of night, and the 2020 missile strikes that rattled the region. Iran is now digging in, rejecting Oman’s proposal for voluntary shipping fees and demanding they be compulsory.
The Delusion of Total Control
The United States is taking a high-stakes gamble with a global economy it claims to protect. Trump posted on Truth Social that he likes having “almost total control of the Hormuz Strait,” while Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. is the only country capable of ensuring that control. They treat the Strait like a valve they can shut to lower energy prices before the November midterms.
But the reality is that no one controls a waterway through a blockade and a few naval escorts. During the Iraq War, the U.S. tried to keep oil tankers moving through sheer military presence, only to find that the water belongs to the people who live there. A U.S. official told CNN the administration only wants to discuss the spinning centrifuges in Iran's underground labs, treating the blockade as a separate tool of pressure. It is a strategic blind spot to think the U.S. can starve a country into a nuclear deal while simultaneously claiming total control of its only exit.
Geography Outlasts Ideology
This deadlock mirrors the Suez Canal closure. In 1967, Egypt shuttered the canal after the Six-Day War, leaving it dormant for nearly a decade. The world learned then that when a critical maritime artery becomes a frontline, carrier strike groups cannot force it open until local captains and ministers reach a political settlement. The Suez crisis proved that geography beats ideology.
The U.S. believes its naval escorts and the Islamabad Memorandum—which collapsed within weeks of being signed—can bypass the need for regional buy-in. Washington is ignoring the lesson of the sixties: when you turn a trade route into a weapon, you lose the ability to treat it as a business. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action remains a ghost of a multilateralism that the current administration has no interest in reviving.
Who Pays for the Blockade?
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Strait will be irrelevant in twenty-four months. He is wrong. As long as the U.S. maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, Iran will use the Strait as its only way to strike back. Masoud Pezeshkian said his people will not be bullied into submission. When a regional power is pushed into a corner, they do not suddenly become reasonable about nuclear enrichment; they make sure the rest of the world feels the squeeze.
The U.S. will likely maintain its blockade and its escorts, believing that total control is a viable strategy. They continue to ignore Omani efforts for a half-and-half split of control because they prefer the silhouette of a destroyer to the reality of a partner. But the midterms will come and go, and energy prices will remain volatile because the U.S. is treating a regional lifeline like a bargaining chip.
The United States operates on the assumption that it can dictate the terms of the sea from a distance. By refusing to engage on the Strait and insisting only on the centrifuges, the administration ensures that the Salalah talks stay postponed. You cannot blockade a neighbor and then ask them to help you manage the fence.