Oman talks postponed as Iran uses the Strait of Hormuz to blackmail
By Grant Colby · Reporting from Amarillo ·
I spent my twenties flying C-130s and my thirties balancing a ledger for 140 families.
I spent my twenties flying C-130s and my thirties balancing a ledger for 140 families. If there is one thing the flight line and the payroll teach you, it is that you cannot negotiate with a man who is actively trying to starve you out. Right now, the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to starve the global economy, and the response from the diplomatic crowd is to postpone a meeting.
The numbers don't lie, and they aren't "diplomatic." According to FRED data, WTI crude has climbed from the low $80s in August to over $102 a barrel by September 14. NBC News reports that diesel has hit an all-time high of $6.23 a gallon. For the folks on Main Street, this isn't a "geopolitical tension"—it is a tax on every grocery bag and every shipment of lumber. While the pundits talk about "consensus," the American consumer is paying the price for a strategy of hesitation.
"Consensus" is a Word for the Weak
The latest news is a masterclass in Iranian manipulation. A regional meeting in Salalah, Oman, intended to discuss the management of the Strait of Hormuz, was postponed. Al Jazeera reports that Iran claims the delay is due to "events unfolding in Yemen," while Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty notes the postponement came at the request of Saudi Arabia to "create conditions conducive to a constructive dialogue."
Let’s call this what it is: a stall. While the Gulf states and Oman play a game of diplomatic musical chairs, the Iranian-backed Houthis are seizing the port of Mocha and tightening their grip on the Bab al-Mandeb strait. This is the same playbook we saw during the 2023 Red Sea crisis—using proxy militias to choke a maritime artery while the principals pretend to be interested in "stability."
Tehran is effectively blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a lane that handles 20% of the world's crude and natural gas. They are squeezing both ends of the Arabian Peninsula simultaneously. When the IRGC brags about destroying an MQ-1 drone with a "new aerospace defence system," they aren't just talking to the Pentagon; they are telling the world that the door is locked and they have the only key.
The Old Playbook of Energy Blackmail
This isn't a new phenomenon; it is a repeat of the 1973 oil crisis. The mechanism is identical: the weaponization of energy supply to trigger global price spikes and force geopolitical concessions. In '73, the world learned that when you allow an adversary to hold the tap, they don't just control the price of gas—they control your foreign policy.
We are seeing the same pattern now. Iran is using the threat of total transit disruption to offset the US naval blockade on its ports. They are betting that the pain at the pump in the Midwest will force Washington to blink. We saw a version of this during Tanker War 2.0 in 2019, where regional tensions spiked oil prices through sheer intimidation. The difference today is the scale. With the Houthis controlling the western coast of Yemen—a result of the long, grinding Yemeni Civil War—Iran has a pincer move on the world's energy supply.
The most dangerous part of this ledger is the nuclear variable. While President Masud Pezeshkian claims Iran wouldn't seek nuclear weapons because it joined the NPT, hard-line lawmakers are already drafting bills to withdraw from the treaty. They call nuclear deterrence an "unavoidable necessity." When you combine a nuclear ambition with a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, you don't have a "diplomatic challenge." You have a strategic emergency.
Deterrence Doesn't Happen in a Conference Room
The most capable advocate for the current approach would argue that we must maintain the Omani channel. They would say that pushing Iran into a corner—blocking their officials from IAEA conferences in Vienna or imposing total blockades—only accelerates their drive toward a nuclear bomb and makes a total closure of the Strait more likely. They argue that "constructive dialogue" is the only way to prevent a global depression.
That argument is a fantasy. It assumes the regime in Tehran values "stability" more than it values dominance. The record shows the opposite. Tehran just acquired satellite images of a US base in Jordan from Chinese entities to facilitate attacks on US troops. They aren't looking for a "sustainable understanding"; they are looking for the optimal moment to strike.
The 2021 Iran-Saudi Arabia diplomatic rift showed that Oman can be a useful messenger, but a messenger cannot stop a war if one side has already decided to fight. The current "dialogue" is nothing more than a screen for Iran to consolidate its gains in Yemen and test the resolve of the West.
We are told that we must be "responsible" to avoid escalation. But there is nothing responsible about letting an adversary dictate the price of diesel to the American farmer. Deterrence is not a conversation; it is a fact. It is the certainty that the cost of aggression outweighs the gain. By treating the Strait of Hormuz as a topic for a postponed meeting rather than a strategic asset to be defended, we are telling Tehran that our resolve is as flexible as a diplomatic memo.
The only way to break an energy blackmail is to remove the leverage. If the world continues to treat the weaponization of the Strait as a diplomatic puzzle to be solved with "consensus," we will find ourselves paying $7 a gallon while the regime in Tehran laughs all the way to the bank. Strength is the only currency the Axis of Resistance accepts; everything else is just a request for surrender.
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WTI crude oil price. Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).