US hubris lets Tehran and Muscat draw the new regional order
By Klaus Berger · Reporting from Frankfurt ·
The current administration in Washington is operating on a balance sheet of delusions.
# The Arithmetic of a Blockade
Washington is betting on a fantasy. Al Jazeera said shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for one-fifth of global oil and gas—has plummeted by 95%. Traffic crashed from over a hundred ships daily to a mere handful. This is not a position of strength; it is a graveyard of idling tankers and silent ports. Yet, President Donald Trump suggested via Truth Social that he prefers this state of affairs, citing his "total control" of the strait and a "collapsing" Iranian economy.
This is the language of a real estate developer, not a strategist. In the world of fixed-income and global trade, stable waters are the baseline. To treat a global energy chokepoint as a leverage tool for the "nuclear file" ignores the fundamental rule of risk: when you ignore the cost of a frozen trade route, the market eventually collects. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed the strait will become a "worthless piece of water" within two years. Water that carries one-fifth of the world's energy is never worthless; it is a liability that the United States refuses to manage.
A Developer's Strategy
While Washington waits for a collapse, sultans and ministers are attempting to stabilize the market. CNN said Gulf diplomats and Iranian officials scheduled a meeting in Oman to discuss a legal framework for reopening the strait, which would involve paying tolls for safe passage. This is a pragmatic attempt to keep tankers moving while diplomats argue.
The meeting, however, reveals a fractured Gulf Cooperation Council. Iran International said the gathering was postponed because certain regional countries intervened, while Bahrain explicitly refused to attend, calling such diplomacy a "policy of appeasement." This split echoes the Abraham Accords, where the region swapped old treaties for new security pacts and shared radar feeds to bypass traditional stalemates. But where those accords created a new alignment, the current crisis creates a void.
The United States believes it can maintain a blockade while talking with partners, yet it refuses to sit at the table where officials are drawing the new maps for shipping routes. By excluding itself from the Omani plan, the US is not exercising control; it is outsourcing the new customs rules and port agreements to Tehran and Muscat.
Can Oman Break the Deadlock?
We have seen this mechanism before. The Suez Crisis of 1956 demonstrated what happens when a superpower’s interests diverge from local stability at a maritime chokepoint. In that instance, the attempt to forcibly reopen the Straits of Tiran and regain the Suez Canal through military intervention failed.
The result was not a restored order, but a retreat of British warships and a sharp decline in colonial prestige. This accelerated the shift toward regional autonomy.
The current 2026 Strait of Hormuz Crisis follows the same pattern. The US and Israel launched combat operations early in the year, leading to the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a subsequent Iranian blockade. Washington believes "Maximum Pressure"—a strategy recycled from 2019—will force Iran to the bargaining table.
This logic assumes that economic pain outweighs the instinct for survival. But when a regional power feels its existence is at stake, it will close the mouth of the gulf regardless of the cost.
The US is betting that the Iranian economy will break before the GCC’s patience does. This is a dangerous gamble. According to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, Iran can endure sanctions if it believes a legal framework for its security exists. By refusing to discuss the strait, the US incentivizes Iran to set its own tariffs and patrol zones with its neighbors, rendering the US Navy's escorts a patch on a leaking hull.
The Wrong Order of Operations
The administration's insistence that it will only talk to Iran about the nuclear file is the wrong order of operations. You cannot negotiate the roof of a house while the docks are burning. A regional source cited by CNN said resolving the strait issue is the most pressing matter.
The most likely trajectory is a fragmented agreement. Oman and Qatar will eventually reach a limited deal with Iran to allow some traffic, while Bahrain and Saudi Arabia remain tethered to a US security umbrella that is increasingly disconnected from the physical reality of the water. This creates a situation where the US pays for the patrols while its allies find a side door.
The United States is trading the power to sign treaties for the short-term satisfaction of economic strangulation. According to current trends, this teaches the GCC that the American security guarantee is conditional and erratic. When the "worthless piece of water" finally sees traffic return under an Omani-Iranian framework, Washington will find that it has not won a victory, but has simply become a bystander to its own blockade.