Oman meetings are a farce as Iran chokes the Strait of Hormuz
By Bram de Vries · Reporting from Amsterdam ·
Trade is the only thing that keeps the world from sliding back into the dark ages, and right now, the world’s energy arteries are being severed with surgical precision. The reporting is grim.
The Price of a Closed Faucet
Trade is the only thing that keeps the world from sliding back into the dark ages, and right now, the world’s energy arteries are being severed with surgical precision. The reporting is grim. According to CNA and RTÉ, a commercial vessel was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz this past Saturday, leaving one dead and four wounded. This isn't an isolated skirmish; it is a coordinated strangulation. While the UKMTO reports fires and crew evacuations, the numbers tell the real story: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to 90% below pre-conflict levels.
When 20 million barrels of oil a day used to flow through that gap, and now it doesn't, the market reacts with the only honesty it possesses: prices. Oil has surged above US$100 a barrel, and US retail diesel has hit an all-time high of over US$6.20 a gallon. This is the cost of cowardice. Simultaneously, the Houthis have moved from nuisance to strategic threat, capturing Perim Island to choke the Bab al-Mandeb strait and launching drone strikes that disabled a 1,200km east-west pipeline across the Arabian Peninsula. Saudi Arabia is now clinging to oil stored at the port of Yanbu—a reserve that will last a mere five to seven days if that pipeline stays offline. We are watching the "Axis of Resistance" execute a textbook maritime siege, and the West is treating it like a boardroom disagreement.
The Oman Theatre is a Waste of Jet Fuel
On Monday, Iranian officials will meet Gulf Arab states in Oman to discuss "maritime traffic management." It is a farce. Bahrain has already stated it will not attend, and Iran’s own Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, has told Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed that the strait will not reopen until the United States satisfies Tehran's demands. Ebrahim Azizi of the Iranian parliament was even blunter on X: dialogue is "of no use" until the Americans surrender.
The most capable advocates for this diplomatic route argue that we must avoid a total regional conflagration. They claim that by keeping the Oman channel open, we provide a pressure valve that prevents the war from expanding and offers a non-violent path to restoring the flow of oil. It is a seductive argument for those who prefer the comfort of a conference table to the grit of a deck. But it is a delusion. You do not negotiate the terms of your own starvation with the person holding the faucet.
We have seen this script before. During the 2019 tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the world learned that Iran views commercial shipping not as neutral trade, but as a hostage to be used for geopolitical leverage. The 2019 attacks on shipping in the Gulf of Oman proved that when the West offers "dialogue" in the face of maritime aggression, Tehran sees it as a green light to escalate. To believe that a meeting in Oman will magically reopen the strait is to ignore the long record of the Islamic Republic.
The Only Way to Break a Siege
What we are witnessing is a modern iteration of the Battle of the Atlantic. In that campaign, the mechanism was simple: one side attempted to starve the other by severing the sea lanes of survival. The Allies did not end the blockade by sending diplomatic notes or requesting "traffic management" meetings with Berlin; they ended it by hunting the U-boats and securing the convoys with overwhelming force. The shared causal machinery here is the weaponization of the global supply chain. If you allow a hostile actor to control the choke points of global trade, you have already lost the war.
The current American response is an exercise in lethal ambiguity. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has phoned President Donald Trump twice, pleading for military strikes against the Houthis. Trump’s response? He offered intelligence support and told the Crown Prince that everything will "work out fine." This is not leadership; it is a gamble with the global economy. While Trump acknowledges that the Houthis have asked Washington to stay out of the Yemen war, the reality is that the Houthis are currently occupying Perim Island and knocking out Saudi infrastructure.
The historical pattern is clear: maritime blockades are broken by naval power, not by memoranda. If the US and its allies continue to prioritize "intelligence support" and Oman-based summits over the physical liberation of the straits, they are merely managing the decline of the free market. The 4% of global oil supply currently jeopardized by the pipeline shutdown is just the beginning.
The West must stop treating the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb as diplomatic variables and start treating them as sovereign necessities. You cannot trade with a ghost, and you cannot grow a pie when the kitchen is under siege. The only language that opens a strait is the language of force; anything else is just paying the ransom while the house burns down.