Donald Trump gambles with Iran war to win a mid-term cycle
By Alma Cordero · Reporting from El Paso ·
Down here in El Paso, we know that the price of a gallon of gas isn't just a number on a sign—it’s the difference between a housekeeper making it to her shift on time or walking…
Down here in El Paso, we know that the price of a gallon of gas isn't just a number on a sign—it’s the difference between a housekeeper making it to her shift on time or walking the shoulder of the road. It is the invisible tax on every working family from Fabens to the Upper Valley. So when Donald Trump stands at a podium in Dallas and promises that oil prices will "come tumbling down" once the war with Iran ends, he isn't talking about peace. He is talking about a ledger.
He is treating a regional catastrophe like a real estate closing, timing the "end" of the war to land right after the November 3 mid-term elections. According to reporting from CNBC and Anadolu Agency, Trump is betting that the conflict will wrap up "very soon," specifically after the voters head to the polls. It is a cynical calculation: keep the tension high enough to justify the military spending, then deliver a "victory" and a price drop just in time to secure a political win. Qué vergüenza. To Trump, the Middle East is not a place where people live; it is a dial he can turn to manipulate the American pump.
The Old Blueprint for the Oil Flow
This isn't a new play; it’s a ghost of the Gulf War. Back then, the mechanism was simple: use decisive military force to crush a regional power—Iraq—and ensure that the global energy supply remained stable and under Western influence. Trump is attempting to run the same script with Iran, believing that enough "maximum pressure" will eventually force Tehran to blink.
We have seen this cycle before. In 2018, the United States withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action showed us that this administration views diplomatic agreements as inconveniences to be discarded in favor of volatility. In 2020, the Assassination of Qasem Soleimani proved that Trump prefers the sudden, violent strike to the slow work of diplomacy. He believes that if you hit a country hard enough, they will eventually give you the price point you want. But the Gulf War worked because there was a clear, territorial objective—Kuwait. Here, the objective is a ghost: "stability" that only exists as long as the U.S. can maintain a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
The Map Doesn't Care About November
While the President is checking his calendar, the ground is shifting in ways a campaign strategist can't control. DW reports that Iran is practicing "controlled escalation," using the conflict as a bargaining chip. They aren't looking for a total war, but they aren't folding either. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian is telling the world in New Delhi that Iran will not yield to "bullying arrogance," and the IRGC is proving it by capturing U.S. underwater drones in the Strait of Hormuz.
More dangerously, the "Axis of Resistance" is moving while Washington waits for November. The Houthi rebels have already seized the port city of Mokha and are advancing on Perim Island, the very landmass that chokes the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This isn't a "controlled" situation; it's a collapse of regional security. Even Saudi Arabia, Trump's supposed partner, is feeling the heat. After drone attacks shut down the East-West crude oil pipeline—a vein capable of moving 7 million barrels a day—the Saudi crown prince didn't ask for a campaign promise. He pressed Trump for immediate U.S. military intervention.
Trump claims the Houthis "called us" and don't want to fight, but the map tells a different story. The Houthis are taking territory, not making phone calls. This is the same disconnect we saw during the 2024 United States presidential election, where political timelines were treated as the only reality that mattered, while the actual machinery of governance and security was left to rust.
The strongest argument for Trump’s approach is that he is using "coercive bargaining"—creating so much pain that Iran has no choice but to sign a deal. But that logic only works if the opponent is more afraid of the pain than they are of the alternative. Between the support of BRICS nations and the strategic seizure of shipping lanes, Iran is betting that the U.S. is the one that cannot afford a long, grinding war of attrition.
Donald Trump is not leading us toward a peace treaty; he is gambling with the global economy to win a mid-term cycle. He thinks he can command the price of oil to drop by decree, but you cannot negotiate with a pipeline that is on fire or a strait that is closed. The war will not end because it is November 4th; it will end when the cost of the blood exceeds the value of the oil, and until then, the working class is the one paying the premium.