Donald Trump gambles with the economy in a war with Iran
By Maya Ellison · Reporting from Detroit ·
When I was twelve, I watched the 2008 crash erase the equity of every house on my block in Flint.
# When I was twelve, I watched the 2008 crash erase the equity of every house on my block in Flint. I saw the peeling paint and the "For Sale" signs multiply as neighbors packed their lives into rusted sedans. I learned early that when the people at the top gamble with the global economy, the bill doesn't go to the boardrooms—it arrives on the front porches of people who cannot afford it. Today, President Donald Trump plays a similar game with the Middle East, and the working class is paying.
CNN reported that U.S. consumers have spent an additional $101 billion on gasoline and diesel since the war with Iran began in February. That sum could rebuild every bridge in the Midwest. For the average family, the cost is not a statistic but a monthly crisis.
| Expense | Cost per Household | | :--- | :--- | | Fuel | $770 | | Total (Energy, Loans, Military) | $1,650 |
Politico said these total costs climbed to $1,650 by early September. For a family in a zip code like mine, that amount is the difference between keeping the lights on and falling behind on the rent.
Who pays for the poker game?
The administration is lying to the public. White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers speaks of "unleashing American energy dominance" and putting money back in the pockets of "hardworking American families." Meanwhile, those families stand at pumps watching prices hit $4.30 a gallon while diesel reaches $6. This is not dominance; it is a disaster. The result mirrors the price spikes at the grocery store that followed the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth told congressional appropriators in July that the war cost $37.5 billion, and he now asks for at least $67 billion more. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described sanctions as an "economic D-Day." The phrase sounds heroic until you realize the battlefield is the American pocketbook. With the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at its lowest point since the Reagan era, the U.S. has no cushion. We are exposed and paying a premium for a conflict with no clear exit.
The Nuclear Shield
The President justifies this carnage with a script we have seen before. In an exchange reported by Politico, Trump dismissed concerns about gasoline prices by asking a single question: "Can Iran have a nuclear weapon? Absolutely not. Well, then I’m right."
This is the administration's strongest argument: that the fear of a nuclear warhead in Tehran justifies any immediate economic pain. To a hawk, the cost is irrelevant if the goal is to topple the Iranian government. But this logic drove the U.S. into the Iraq War. In 2003, officials told the public that the risk of a regime possessing weapons of mass destruction outweighed the cost of a protracted invasion. We were promised a swift victory and a liberated region; instead, we got a decade of insurgency and a bill that never stopped growing.
The pattern repeats. The administration substitutes a theoretical future threat for a very real present crisis. Just as the War in Afghanistan became a prolonged military conflict with a bill that grew as public support evaporated, the administration sells this war as a necessity while nearly two-thirds of Americans oppose the strikes. The "nuclear" argument is the shield the White House uses to protect the policy from the ledger.
A gamble on the midterms
The most cynical part of this strategy is the timeline. Time Magazine reported that Trump expects the war to end "immediately after" the midterm elections, suggesting that Iran is simply trying to hurt Republican prospects in November. This is a convenient narrative, but Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group noted that the market is simply recalibrating to the reality that no breakthrough will occur until after the vote.
The administration is risking the economy for a political calendar. They bet they can keep the crisis quiet until the ballots are cast, even as Houthi drones strike Saudi oil rigs and the Red Sea becomes a shooting gallery of tankers and missiles.
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics warned that consumers will soon make "pretty tough choices" as spending weakens. We are heading toward a cliff where the cost of this war triggers a broader economic slowdown, yet the President continues to promise that prices will "drop precipitously" only when we "WIN."
The history of American intervention in the Middle East tells us that the definition of victory shifts. Intelligence officers assess that Tehran is prepared to fight for months, and internal discussions between J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio suggest this war could last the rest of the term.
This is not a strategic necessity; it is a transfer of wealth from the American kitchen table to missile factories and defense contractors. Donald Trump treats the U.S. economy like a casino, betting the stability of millions of households on a geopolitical gamble that fails every time we try it. The bill is growing, the reserves are empty, and the only people winning are the ones selling the weapons.