IRGC strikes at Al-Azraq prove the US is on the defensive
By Adele Rutherford · Reporting from Atlanta ·
On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired twenty ballistic missiles at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Al-Azraq, Jordan.
# The Arithmetic of Ineffectiveness
On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired 20 ballistic missiles at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base near Al-Azraq, Jordan. Jordan’s air defenses stopped nine in ten, while the remaining two hit empty desert. A US official dismissed the strikes as "ineffective" because no American troops suffered injuries. Al Jazeera reports that Iran views the base as a legitimate target because it houses the drones and intelligence assets the US uses to monitor Tehran.
"Ineffective" suggests a win. But in war, a single strike matters less than the precedent it sets. The US treats this as a failed tactic; Iran is sending a procedural signal. By hitting Al-Azraq, Tehran warns that keeping boots in Jordan now carries a higher, more dangerous price.
Why the Tanker War Matters
This strategy mirrors the Tanker War of the 1980s, when Iran and Iraq sank merchant ships to squeeze a stronger military. The goal is asymmetric attrition: make the opponent's presence too expensive to maintain. Instead of fighting a pitched battle, the smaller power targets the logistics and the ledger.
France 24 reports a surge in shipping strikes. The Al-Azraq missiles are a loud distraction while the real fight moves to the sea. Iran uses chaos in the shipping lanes—seizing tankers and mining waters—to force the US to spend its treasury on patrol boats and escort ships.
A Shield is Not a Solution
Some argue that high interception rates prove Iranian weakness. They point to the recent barrage against Israel, where a coalition of allies stopped almost every missile, as evidence that this strategy of small, stinging attacks fails against modern air defense systems.
That view mistakes a shield for a solution. The IRGC does not seek to destroy the base, but to make the threat routine. During the 2020 strikes on Al-Asad Airbase, Tehran signaled strength without starting a total war. After the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, these strikes became a currency—a way to maintain a violent equilibrium through a cycle of strikes and pauses.
The Price of Staying
Washington will likely add more Patriot missiles and troop rotations to Al-Azraq. But adding concrete and steel only gives the opponent a larger target. When the US rewards a signal with more infrastructure, it invites the opponent to pivot to a different, softer vulnerability.
The IRGC will not stop because of a few interceptions. They will shift to softer targets, such as diplomatic compounds, or hack the power grid to bypass the wall. The US is spending its influence and patience. By calling these strikes "ineffective," the US ignores the core fact: Iran is willing to pay any price to keep American forces anxious and pinned down.