If two global straits close, oil could hit $150 per barrel

By Emilio Quesada · Reporting from Miami · July 21, 2026

Fighting between the United States, Israel, and Iran has escalated into a volatile cycle of intense military strikes and regional blockades.

The Price of Iranian Instability: Why Dialogue Is a Dangerous Delusion

The current crisis on global waterways proves one thing: Iran does not want peace; it wants leverage. While high-level diplomatic messaging remains contradictory—with President Donald Trump insisting that Tehran "desperately" wants ceasefire talks, even while the U.S. and Iran have exchanged limited strikes for over a week—the reality on the ground speaks volumes. The ongoing military exchange, which includes U.S. service members killed in attacks within Jordan and Iraq (NPR; ABC News), dwarfs any pretense of negotiation. When state news agency IRNA reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attacked and destroyed a data center belonging to Amazon in Bahrain using several cruise missiles, it wasn't an isolated incident; it was calculated aggression designed to destabilize global trade. Kuwait’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs publicly condemned these acts, holding Tehran fully responsible for ongoing aggression against the state. The regime views international law as nothing more than a suggestion and continues its campaign of terror from the shadows.

Global Choke Points: Sanctions Are the Only Deterrent

The escalating conflict has transformed critical global waterways into defined zones of geopolitical tension, making sanctions enforcement not merely an economic tool, but an existential necessity for world stability. The Houthis, a Shia militia in Yemen aligned with Iran, have added immense pressure by announcing a naval blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in retaliation for strikes from Saudi Arabia on an airport in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa (NPR). When combined with U.S. Central Command's ongoing efforts to degrade Iranian capabilities—including fresh rounds of attacks against Iranian assets in the Strait of Hormuz—the risk is staggering. Maritime experts warn that if both the Bab el Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz close, oil prices could skyrocket to $150 per barrel due to overwhelming uncertainty in transit routes (a ship fleet company executive). This catastrophic economic risk overshadows all other diplomatic efforts. The fact remains: Iran’s primary vulnerability is its financial structure. While a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreed upon June 17 offers temporary relief through U.S. sanctions waivers, allowing Tehran to increase exports for 60 days, this merely buys time. We must continue to enforce the "pay-for-performance" approach tied to Iranian compliance regarding the over $100 billion in assets frozen across nations including China, Qatar, India, Iraq, and Japan (ABC News; DW).

The only reliable path toward stability is a sustained, unwavering commitment to maximum pressure. Any diplomatic window that suggests negotiation before Iran ceases its aggressive actions against American installations and critical infrastructure must be slammed shut.

If two global straits close, oil could hit $150 per barrel

The Price of Iranian Instability: Why Dialogue Is a Dangerous Delusion

Global Choke Points: Sanctions Are the Only Deterrent

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